Report · AI & Tech

Most Americans haven't bet on a prediction market in the past year

Reading

Prediction markets let people put money on the outcome of future events, but few Americans do: 83% say they have not bet on platforms like Polymarket or Kalshi at all in the past 12 months, according to a March 2026 Verasight survey of 1,000 U.S. adults.

Betting with any regularity is rare: 5% of adults wager less than once a month, 2% once a month, 3% two to three times a month, 3% once a week, 3% two to three times a week, and 1% four or more times a week.

Topline

single choice

Topline distribution

Most Americans haven't bet on a prediction market in the past year.

In the past 12 months, how often have you bet money or gambled on outcomes in a prediction market (e.g., Polymarket, Kalshi, PredictIt, Robinhood, Crypto.com, Rithmm)?

  • Not at all 83.2%
  • Less than once a month 4.5%
  • 2-3 times a month 3.2%
  • Once a week 2.8%
  • 2-3 times a week 2.6%
  • Once a month 2.3%
  • 4 or more times a week 1.4%

2026 · base n 1,000 · +/- 3.4%

Module 1: Technology, Finance, & Media

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Methodology

Full methodology
Mode
Verasight panel recruited via random address-based sampling, random person-to-person text messaging, and dynamic online targeting
Field dates
2026-03-06 → 2026-03-16
Base (unweighted)
1,000
Margin of error
+/- 3.4%
Module
Module 1: Technology, Finance, & Media

Source

Citation

Verasight Client Omnibus Survey #2026-044, fielded March 6-16, 2026, N=1,000 US adults age 18+, +/- 3.4%.

https://reports.verasight.io/r/omnibus-2026-044#q-1-11

Verasight survey methodology

How Verasight conducts surveys.

This page describes the Verasight general survey contract, separate from how the Data Library packages it. When a wave report is published, its field dates, sample sizes, and module breakdown are listed in that report.

Mode
Verasight panel recruited via random address-based sampling, random person-to-person text messaging, and dynamic online targeting.
Population
US adults age 18+.
Sample design
Surveys are run as omnibus or single-topic waves. Omnibus waves are split into modules with their own respondent set, typically around one thousand respondents per module.
Field window
Each wave specifies its own field dates. Most omnibus waves field across roughly two weeks.
Weighting
Per-module weighting to CPS targets including age, race and ethnicity, sex, income, education, region, and metropolitan status.
Partisanship benchmark
Pew Research Center's NPORS benchmarking surveys, three-year running average.
Vote benchmark
2024 presidential vote population benchmarks.
Margin of error
Typically about plus or minus 3.4 to 3.6 percent per module at standard module sizes. Question-level MoE is recomputed when a base shrinks materially below the module baseline.
Reporting
The canonical report hub is reports.verasight.io. Verified legacy reports remain on their original hosts, and unpublished reports are marked pending.
Transparency
Verasight is a member of the American Association for Public Opinion Research Transparency Initiative.

The canonical report hub is reports.verasight.io; older reports may remain on verified legacy hosts.