Report · AI & Tech

Most say officials shouldn't trade on prediction markets at all

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For most Americans, inside information is beside the point when it comes to government officials and prediction markets. About two-thirds (68%) say officials should be forbidden from trading on them even if they do not have inside information, according to a March 2026 Verasight survey.

Another 21% say officials should be forbidden only if they have inside, non-public information, and just 11% say they should not be forbidden from trading under any circumstances.

Topline

single choice

Topline distribution

Most say officials shouldn't trade on prediction markets at all.

For the purposes of this question, an online prediction market refers to internet and mobile platforms (e.g., Kalshi, Polymarket, Predictit) where people can wager on the outcome of future events (like elections, sports, celebrity news, etc.). Which of the following statements about online prediction markets comes closest to your views, even if none are exactly right?

  • Government officials should be FORBIDDEN from trading on prediction markets, even if they DO NOT have "inside" informati 67.8%
  • Government officials should be FORBIDDEN from trading on prediction markets, but ONLY if they have "inside" (non-public) 21.5%
  • Government officials should NOT BE FORBIDDEN from trading on prediction markets under any circumstances. 10.8%

2026 · base n 1,000 · +/- 3.4%

Module 1: Technology, Finance, & Media

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Methodology

Full methodology
Mode
Verasight panel recruited via random address-based sampling, random person-to-person text messaging, and dynamic online targeting
Field dates
2026-03-06 → 2026-03-16
Base (unweighted)
1,000
Margin of error
+/- 3.4%
Module
Module 1: Technology, Finance, & Media

Source

Citation

Verasight Client Omnibus Survey #2026-044, fielded March 6-16, 2026, N=1,000 US adults age 18+, +/- 3.4%.

https://reports.verasight.io/r/omnibus-2026-044#q-1-9

Verasight survey methodology

How Verasight conducts surveys.

This page describes the Verasight general survey contract, separate from how the Data Library packages it. When a wave report is published, its field dates, sample sizes, and module breakdown are listed in that report.

Mode
Verasight panel recruited via random address-based sampling, random person-to-person text messaging, and dynamic online targeting.
Population
US adults age 18+.
Sample design
Surveys are run as omnibus or single-topic waves. Omnibus waves are split into modules with their own respondent set, typically around one thousand respondents per module.
Field window
Each wave specifies its own field dates. Most omnibus waves field across roughly two weeks.
Weighting
Per-module weighting to CPS targets including age, race and ethnicity, sex, income, education, region, and metropolitan status.
Partisanship benchmark
Pew Research Center's NPORS benchmarking surveys, three-year running average.
Vote benchmark
2024 presidential vote population benchmarks.
Margin of error
Typically about plus or minus 3.4 to 3.6 percent per module at standard module sizes. Question-level MoE is recomputed when a base shrinks materially below the module baseline.
Reporting
The canonical report hub is reports.verasight.io. Verified legacy reports remain on their original hosts, and unpublished reports are marked pending.
Transparency
Verasight is a member of the American Association for Public Opinion Research Transparency Initiative.

The canonical report hub is reports.verasight.io; older reports may remain on verified legacy hosts.