Most say officials shouldn't trade on prediction markets at all

Mar 6–16, 2026 · n = 1,000 · MoE ±3.4%Source report ↗

Core finding

For most Americans, inside information is beside the point when it comes to government officials and prediction markets. About two-thirds (68%) say officials should be forbidden from trading on them even if they do not have inside information, according to a March 2026 Verasight survey.

Another 21% say officials should be forbidden only if they have inside, non-public information, and just 11% say they should not be forbidden from trading under any circumstances.

Topline distribution

Most say officials shouldn't trade on prediction markets at all.

For the purposes of this question, an online prediction market refers to internet and mobile platforms (e.g., Kalshi, Polymarket, Predictit) where people can wager on the outcome of future events (like elections, sports, celebrity news, etc.). Which of the following statements about online prediction markets comes closest to your views, even if none are exactly right?

Government officials should be FORBIDDEN from trading on prediction markets, even if they DO NOT have "inside" informati
67.8%
Government officials should be FORBIDDEN from trading on prediction markets, but ONLY if they have "inside" (non-public)
21.5%
Government officials should NOT BE FORBIDDEN from trading on prediction markets under any circumstances.
10.8%

n = 1,000 · Mar 6–16, 2026 · MoE ±3.4%

ModeVerasight panel recruited via random address-based sampling, random person-to-person text messaging, and dynamic online targeting
PopulationUS adults age 18+
Field datesMar 6–16, 2026
Base (unweighted)1,000
Margin of error±3.4%
ModuleModule 1: Technology, Finance, & Media
SponsorVerasight
Weight variableweight
Weighting targetsage, race/ethnicity, sex, income, education, region, metropolitan status

Sources

  1. 01

    Which of the following statements about online prediction markets comes closest to your views, even if none are exactly right?

    reports.verasight.io/r/omnibus-2026-044

Cite this question

Verasight Client Omnibus Survey #2026-044, fielded March 6-16, 2026, N=1,000 US adults age 18+, +/- 3.4%.