Most say officials shouldn't trade on prediction markets at all
Core finding
For most Americans, inside information is beside the point when it comes to government officials and prediction markets. About two-thirds (68%) say officials should be forbidden from trading on them even if they do not have inside information, according to a March 2026 Verasight survey.
Another 21% say officials should be forbidden only if they have inside, non-public information, and just 11% say they should not be forbidden from trading under any circumstances.
Topline distribution
Most say officials shouldn't trade on prediction markets at all.
For the purposes of this question, an online prediction market refers to internet and mobile platforms (e.g., Kalshi, Polymarket, Predictit) where people can wager on the outcome of future events (like elections, sports, celebrity news, etc.). Which of the following statements about online prediction markets comes closest to your views, even if none are exactly right?
n = 1,000 · Mar 6–16, 2026 · MoE ±3.4%
Methodology
Full methodology →| Mode | Verasight panel recruited via random address-based sampling, random person-to-person text messaging, and dynamic online targeting |
|---|---|
| Population | US adults age 18+ |
| Field dates | Mar 6–16, 2026 |
| Base (unweighted) | 1,000 |
| Margin of error | ±3.4% |
| Module | Module 1: Technology, Finance, & Media |
| Sponsor | Verasight |
| Weight variable | weight |
| Weighting targets | age, race/ethnicity, sex, income, education, region, metropolitan status |
Sources
- reports.verasight.io/r/omnibus-2026-044
Which of the following statements about online prediction markets comes closest to your views, even if none are exactly right?
Cite this question
Verasight Client Omnibus Survey #2026-044, fielded March 6-16, 2026, N=1,000 US adults age 18+, +/- 3.4%.