Americans trust election polls more than betting markets
Core finding
In a Verasight survey of 1,500 U.S. adults conducted September 16 to 21, 2026, 24.4% put public opinion polls first among six sources for predicting an election winner, compared with 11.1% for betting markets.
News experts and analysts receive the most first-place rankings, at 33.0%. Betting markets are familiar to 69.0% who have never used one, while 8.9% have used one.
Polls receive more first-place rankings
For election forecasts, 33.0% trust news experts and analysts most, followed by polls at 24.4% and people they know at 19.7%.
Betting markets receive 11.1% of first-place rankings, ahead of candidates and campaigns at 6.7% and social media at 5.2%. These rankings measure trust, not which source predicts elections most accurately.
Stacked breakdown
Trust in election forecasts: public opinion polls (1 = most trusted; 6 = least trusted).
n = 1,500 · Sep 16–21, 2026 · MoE ±2.6%
Stacked breakdown
Trust in election forecasts: betting markets (1 = most trusted; 6 = least trusted).
n = 1,500 · Sep 16–21, 2026 · MoE ±2.6%
Stacked breakdown
Trust in election forecasts: experts and analysts on the news (1 = most trusted; 6 = least trusted).
n = 1,500 · Sep 16–21, 2026 · MoE ±2.6%
Stacked breakdown
Trust in election forecasts: what the candidates and campaigns say (1 = most trusted; 6 = least trusted).
n = 1,500 · Sep 16–21, 2026 · MoE ±2.6%
Stacked breakdown
Trust in election forecasts: talking to people you know (1 = most trusted; 6 = least trusted).
n = 1,500 · Sep 16–21, 2026 · MoE ±2.6%
Stacked breakdown
Trust in election forecasts: what you see on social media (1 = most trusted; 6 = least trusted).
n = 1,500 · Sep 16–21, 2026 · MoE ±2.6%
Economic information shows a similar gap
For information about the economy and what is likely to happen, 20.3% trust betting markets a great deal or a fair amount. That compares with 41.6% for public opinion polls.
Trust reaches 77.9% for personal experience and people respondents know. The economic-information question asks about each source separately, while the election question requires an ordered ranking.
Topline
54.3% of Americans trust public opinion polls not much or not at all for information about the economy and what is likely to happen.
n = 1,500 · Sep 16–21, 2026 · MoE ±2.6%
Topline
69.3% of Americans trust betting markets not much or not at all for information about the economy and what is likely to happen.
n = 1,500 · Sep 16–21, 2026 · MoE ±2.6%
Topline
77.9% trust their own experience and people they know a great deal or a fair amount for economic information.
n = 1,500 · Sep 16–21, 2026 · MoE ±2.6%
Using a prediction market remains uncommon
Only 8.9% have used a prediction market. Another 69.0% have heard of them without using one, and 22.0% have not heard of them.
The survey defines prediction markets as websites where people bet on outcomes such as elections, interest rates or award winners. It does not measure the size or frequency of respondents’ bets.
Topline
8.9% of Americans have used a prediction market, websites where people can bet on events such as elections or interest rates.
n = 1,500 · Sep 16–21, 2026 · MoE ±2.6%
Methodology
Full methodology →| Mode | Verasight panel recruited via random address-based sampling, random person-to-person text messaging, and dynamic online targeting |
|---|---|
| Population | US adults age 18+ |
| Field dates | Sep 16–21, 2026 |
| Base (unweighted) | 1,500 |
| Margin of error | ±2.6% |
| Module | Current Events Survey #2026-243 |
| Sponsor | Verasight |
| Weight variable | weight |
| Weighting targets | age, race/ethnicity, sex, income, education, region, metropolitan status |
Sources
- reports.verasight.io/r/2026-243-prediction-markets-report
- Public opinion polls
- reports.verasight.io/r/2026-243-prediction-markets-report
Before today, had you heard of prediction markets — websites where people can bet money on things like elections, interest rates, or who will win an award?
- reports.verasight.io/r/2026-243-prediction-markets-report
- Federal government agencies
Cite this topic
September Verasight National Survey: Current Events and Prediction Markets, fielded September 16-21, 2026, N=1,500 US adults age 18+, +/- 2.6%.