Just over half of Americans would switch doors in the Monty Hall problem
Core finding
Verasight surveyed 1,000 U.S. adults from August 13 to 18, 2026. On a game show with three doors, one hiding a car, 53.6% of Americans would switch doors after the host opens one to show a goat. 46.4% would stick with their first pick.
The setup matches the Monty Hall problem. The question records what people would choose and does not test whether they know the odds.
Topline distribution
Just over half of Americans would switch doors in the Monty Hall problem.
Would you switch?
n = 1,000 · Aug 13–18, 2026 · MoE ±3.2%
Methodology
Full methodology →| Mode | Verasight panel recruited via random address-based sampling, random person-to-person text messaging, and dynamic online targeting |
|---|---|
| Population | US adults age 18+ |
| Field dates | Aug 13–18, 2026 |
| Base (unweighted) | 1,000 |
| Margin of error | ±3.2% |
| Module | Verasight JSM and Quirk's Omnibus Survey |
| Sponsor | Verasight |
| Weight variable | weight |
| Weighting targets | age, race/ethnicity, sex, income, education, region, metropolitan status |
Sources
- reports.verasight.io/r/jsm-quirks-2026
Would you switch?
Cite this question
JSM and Quirk's Omnibus Survey, fielded August 13-18, 2026, N=1,000 US adults age 18+, +/- 3.2%.