Report · Culture

More than half would rather avoid uncertain outcomes

Reading

Most Americans favor certainty over the unknown: 55% disagree that they prefer situations with uncertain outcomes over certain ones, including 15% who strongly disagree.

Only 16% agree they favor uncertainty, and 28% neither agree nor disagree, according to a Verasight survey of 510 U.S. adults conducted June 25-30, 2025.

Topline

response scale

Topline scale

More than half would rather avoid uncertain outcomes.

Please indicate how much you agree or disagree with the following statement: I prefer situations in which outcomes are uncertain rather than certain.

  • Neither Agree nor Disagree 28.4%
  • Disagree 24.9%
  • Strongly Disagree 15.2%
  • Somewhat Disagree 15.1%
  • Somewhat Agree 8.6%
  • Agree 6.4%
  • Strongly Agree 1.4%

2025 · base n 510 · +/- 5.3%

ICA Conference Omnibus Survey #2025-058

View source

Methodology

Full methodology
Mode
Verasight panel recruited via random address-based sampling, random person-to-person text messaging, and dynamic online targeting
Field dates
2025-06-25 → 2025-06-30
Base (unweighted)
510
Margin of error
+/- 5.3%
Module
ICA Conference Omnibus Survey #2025-058

Source

Citation

ICA Conference Omnibus Survey #2025-058, fielded June 25-30, 2025, N=510 US adults age 18+, +/- 5.3%.

https://verasight-ica-2025.tiiny.co

Verasight survey methodology

How Verasight conducts surveys.

This page describes the Verasight general survey contract, separate from how the Data Library packages it. When a wave report is published, its field dates, sample sizes, and module breakdown are listed in that report.

Mode
Verasight panel recruited via random address-based sampling, random person-to-person text messaging, and dynamic online targeting.
Population
US adults age 18+.
Sample design
Surveys are run as omnibus or single-topic waves. Omnibus waves are split into modules with their own respondent set, typically around one thousand respondents per module.
Field window
Each wave specifies its own field dates. Most omnibus waves field across roughly two weeks.
Weighting
Per-module weighting to CPS targets including age, race and ethnicity, sex, income, education, region, and metropolitan status.
Partisanship benchmark
Pew Research Center's NPORS benchmarking surveys, three-year running average.
Vote benchmark
2024 presidential vote population benchmarks.
Margin of error
Typically about plus or minus 3.4 to 3.6 percent per module at standard module sizes. Question-level MoE is recomputed when a base shrinks materially below the module baseline.
Reporting
The canonical report hub is reports.verasight.io. Verified legacy reports remain on their original hosts, and unpublished reports are marked pending.
Transparency
Verasight is a member of the American Association for Public Opinion Research Transparency Initiative.

The canonical report hub is reports.verasight.io; older reports may remain on verified legacy hosts.