Report · Culture

On Groundhog Day, Americans trust Punxsutawney Phil over their local groundhogs

Reading

When it comes to which groundhog to rely on for spring's arrival in their own town, more Americans trust the celebrated Punxsutawney Phil (37%) than their nearby local groundhog (32%).

It is a close call, though: a nearly equal 31% say they cannot tell which one to trust, leaving Phil well short of a majority, according to a Verasight survey conducted May 16-17, 2023.

Topline

single choice

Topline distribution

On Groundhog Day, Americans trust Punxsutawney Phil over their local groundhogs.

If you believed in the Groundhog Day story and you wanted to know when Spring would be coming to your hometown, which Groundhog ought you to rely upon?

  • Punxatawney Phil 36.8%
  • Local Groundhog 32.1%
  • Not sure which one, can't say 31.1%

2023 · base n 1,000 · +/- 3.3%

AAPOR 2023 Omnibus Survey #2023-036

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Methodology

Full methodology
Mode
Verasight panel recruited via random address-based sampling, random person-to-person text messaging, and dynamic online targeting
Field dates
2023-05-16 → 2023-05-17
Base (unweighted)
1,000
Margin of error
+/- 3.3%
Module
AAPOR 2023 Omnibus Survey #2023-036

Source

Citation

AAPOR 2023 Omnibus Survey #2023-036, fielded May 16-17, 2023, N=1,000 United States adults, +/- 3.3%.

https://verasight-aapor-2023.tiiny.co

Verasight survey methodology

How Verasight conducts surveys.

This page describes the Verasight general survey contract, separate from how the Data Library packages it. When a wave report is published, its field dates, sample sizes, and module breakdown are listed in that report.

Mode
Verasight panel recruited via random address-based sampling, random person-to-person text messaging, and dynamic online targeting.
Population
US adults age 18+.
Sample design
Surveys are run as omnibus or single-topic waves. Omnibus waves are split into modules with their own respondent set, typically around one thousand respondents per module.
Field window
Each wave specifies its own field dates. Most omnibus waves field across roughly two weeks.
Weighting
Per-module weighting to CPS targets including age, race and ethnicity, sex, income, education, region, and metropolitan status.
Partisanship benchmark
Pew Research Center's NPORS benchmarking surveys, three-year running average.
Vote benchmark
2024 presidential vote population benchmarks.
Margin of error
Typically about plus or minus 3.4 to 3.6 percent per module at standard module sizes. Question-level MoE is recomputed when a base shrinks materially below the module baseline.
Reporting
The canonical report hub is reports.verasight.io. Verified legacy reports remain on their original hosts, and unpublished reports are marked pending.
Transparency
Verasight is a member of the American Association for Public Opinion Research Transparency Initiative.

The canonical report hub is reports.verasight.io; older reports may remain on verified legacy hosts.