Report · Culture

Seven in ten are unlikely to see Project Hail Mary

Reading

Project Hail Mary faces a cool reception ahead of its release: roughly seven-in-ten Americans (69%) say they are unlikely to see it, including 35% who call it highly unlikely, according to a Verasight survey conducted December 2025 into January 2026.

The other 31% expect to see it, though just 9% are highly likely.

Topline

response scale

Topline scale

Seven in ten are unlikely to see Project Hail Mary.

How likely are you to see each of these movies, scheduled to be released in 2026? Item: Project Hail Mary

  • Highly Unlikely 35.3%
  • Unlikely 33.6%
  • Likely 22.5%
  • Highly likely 8.6%

2025 · base n 2,000 · +/- 2.2%

pop_culture

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Methodology

Full methodology
Mode
Verasight panel recruited via random address-based sampling, random person-to-person text messaging, and dynamic online targeting
Field dates
2025-12-22 → 2026-01-05
Base (unweighted)
2,000
Margin of error
+/- 2.2%
Module
pop_culture

Source

Citation

2026 Predictions Survey #2025-183, fielded December 22, 2025-January 5, 2026, N=2,000 United States adults, +/- 2.2%.

https://reports.verasight.io/r/2026-predictions

Verasight survey methodology

How Verasight conducts surveys.

This page describes the Verasight general survey contract, separate from how the Data Library packages it. When a wave report is published, its field dates, sample sizes, and module breakdown are listed in that report.

Mode
Verasight panel recruited via random address-based sampling, random person-to-person text messaging, and dynamic online targeting.
Population
US adults age 18+.
Sample design
Surveys are run as omnibus or single-topic waves. Omnibus waves are split into modules with their own respondent set, typically around one thousand respondents per module.
Field window
Each wave specifies its own field dates. Most omnibus waves field across roughly two weeks.
Weighting
Per-module weighting to CPS targets including age, race and ethnicity, sex, income, education, region, and metropolitan status.
Partisanship benchmark
Pew Research Center's NPORS benchmarking surveys, three-year running average.
Vote benchmark
2024 presidential vote population benchmarks.
Margin of error
Typically about plus or minus 3.4 to 3.6 percent per module at standard module sizes. Question-level MoE is recomputed when a base shrinks materially below the module baseline.
Reporting
The canonical report hub is reports.verasight.io. Verified legacy reports remain on their original hosts, and unpublished reports are marked pending.
Transparency
Verasight is a member of the American Association for Public Opinion Research Transparency Initiative.

The canonical report hub is reports.verasight.io; older reports may remain on verified legacy hosts.