Report · Culture

Seven in ten know the groundhog's shadow means six more weeks of winter

Reading

Most Americans (71%) know the folklore: a groundhog that sees its shadow on February 2nd means six more weeks of winter, according to a May 2024 Verasight survey.

One-in-five (20%) instead read the shadow as a sign that spring is around the corner, while smaller shares take it to mean a warmer-than-usual winter (4%) or nothing at all (2%); another 4% do not know.

Topline

single choice

Topline distribution

Seven in ten know the groundhog's shadow means six more weeks of winter.

Each year on February 2nd, people in the U.S. take note of Ground Hog Day. According to folklore, if the groundhog sees his shadow on that morning, what is that supposed to tell us? (Please answer from your own current knowledge, without consulting external sources.)

  • Six more weeks of winter 70.5%
  • Spring is right around the corner 20.1%
  • Don't know 3.9%
  • Winter is warmer than usual 3.6%
  • This doesn't tell us anything 1.8%

2024 · base n 1,000 · +/- 3.3%

Verasight AAPOR Omnibus Survey #2024-054

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Methodology

Full methodology
Mode
Verasight panel recruited via random address-based sampling, random person-to-person text messaging, and dynamic online targeting
Field dates
2024-05-22 → 2024-05-24
Base (unweighted)
1,000
Margin of error
+/- 3.3%
Module
Verasight AAPOR Omnibus Survey #2024-054

Source

Citation

Verasight AAPOR Omnibus Survey #2024-054, fielded May 22-24, 2024, N=1,000 US adults age 18+, +/- 3.3%.

https://verasight-aapor-2024.tiiny.co

Verasight survey methodology

How Verasight conducts surveys.

This page describes the Verasight general survey contract, separate from how the Data Library packages it. When a wave report is published, its field dates, sample sizes, and module breakdown are listed in that report.

Mode
Verasight panel recruited via random address-based sampling, random person-to-person text messaging, and dynamic online targeting.
Population
US adults age 18+.
Sample design
Surveys are run as omnibus or single-topic waves. Omnibus waves are split into modules with their own respondent set, typically around one thousand respondents per module.
Field window
Each wave specifies its own field dates. Most omnibus waves field across roughly two weeks.
Weighting
Per-module weighting to CPS targets including age, race and ethnicity, sex, income, education, region, and metropolitan status.
Partisanship benchmark
Pew Research Center's NPORS benchmarking surveys, three-year running average.
Vote benchmark
2024 presidential vote population benchmarks.
Margin of error
Typically about plus or minus 3.4 to 3.6 percent per module at standard module sizes. Question-level MoE is recomputed when a base shrinks materially below the module baseline.
Reporting
The canonical report hub is reports.verasight.io. Verified legacy reports remain on their original hosts, and unpublished reports are marked pending.
Transparency
Verasight is a member of the American Association for Public Opinion Research Transparency Initiative.

The canonical report hub is reports.verasight.io; older reports may remain on verified legacy hosts.