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What Americans think about prediction markets

Jun 3, 2026 · n = 2,000 · MoE ±2.3%Source report ↗

Core finding

Prediction markets appear familiar to many adults, but that familiarity has not translated into broad participation.

About 68.9% are at least slightly familiar with prediction markets, while 80.3% say they never bet on them. On the broader social question, 44.8% say prediction markets cause more harm than benefit and 38.0% are not sure.

Awareness is broader than use

Roughly 68.9% of adults are at least slightly familiar with prediction markets. That includes 27.0% who are somewhat familiar and 8.6% who are very familiar.

Actual use is much lower. About 80.3% say they never bet on prediction markets, and 50.3% say they have not participated and are not interested.

Stacked breakdown

68.9% are at least slightly familiar with prediction markets.

How familiar are you with prediction markets, platforms where people buy and sell contracts based on the outcome of future events, such as elections, economic data, or world events?

Very familiar — I know a lot about how they work
8.6%
Somewhat familiar — I have a general sense of what they are
27.0%
Slightly familiar — I have heard of them but don't know much
33.3%
Not at all familiar — this is the first I am hearing of them
31.1%

n = 2,000 · Apr 21–23, 2026 · MoE ±2.3%

68.9% are at least slightly familiar with prediction markets, including 35.6% who are somewhat or very familiar.
Source report · April 2026 Verasight Variety Survey ↗

Topline

80.3% say they never bet on prediction markets.

How often, if at all, do you do each of the following activities? - Bet on prediction markets

Never
80.3%
A few times a year
7.0%
A few times a month
4.1%
About once a month
3.9%
A few times a week
3.1%
Daily
1.6%

n = 2,000 · Apr 21–23, 2026 · MoE ±2.3%

80.3% say they never bet on prediction markets.
Source report · April 2026 Verasight Variety Survey ↗

Regulation views cluster around casinos or stricter treatment

The largest regulation bucket is parity with casinos: 35.4% say prediction markets should be regulated about the same as casinos.

Another 29.4% say prediction markets should be regulated more strictly than casinos, while 9.1% say they should be regulated less strictly and 24.2% are not sure.

Social benefit remains unsettled

Views of social impact lean more negative than positive. About 44.8% say prediction markets cause more harm than benefit, compared with 17.3% who say they cause more benefit than harm.

The large 38.0% not-sure share matters because it sits alongside broader familiarity. The pattern is not simply that adults have never heard of prediction markets. It is that many remain unconvinced or undecided.

Topline

44.8% say prediction markets cause more harm than benefit.

Overall, do you think prediction markets cause more benefit or more harm to society?

Not sure
38.0%
Somewhat more harm than benefit
24.5%
Much more harm than benefit
20.3%
Somewhat more benefit than harm
13.2%
Much more benefit than harm
4.1%

n = 2,000 · Apr 21–23, 2026 · MoE ±2.3%

44.8% say prediction markets cause more harm than benefit, compared with 17.3% who say they cause more benefit than harm.
Source report · April 2026 Verasight Variety Survey ↗

Methodology

Full methodology →
ModeVerasight panel recruited via random address-based sampling, random person-to-person text messaging, and dynamic online targeting
PopulationUS adults age 18+
Field datesApr 21–23, 2026
Base (unweighted)2,000
Margin of error±2.3%
ModuleApril 2026 Verasight Variety Survey
SponsorVerasight
Weight variableweight
Weighting targetsage, race/ethnicity, sex, income, education, region, metropolitan status

Sources

  1. 01

    How familiar are you with prediction markets — platforms where people buy and sell contracts based on the outcome of future events, such as elections, economic data, or world events?

    68.9% are at least slightly familiar with prediction markets, including 35.6% who are somewhat or very familiar.

    reports.verasight.io/r/variety10126
  2. 02

    How often, if at all, do you do each of the following activities? - Bet on prediction markets

    80.3% say they never bet on prediction markets.

    reports.verasight.io/r/variety10126
  3. 03

    Have you ever participated in a prediction market? Examples include Polymarket, Kalshi, PredictIt, or Metaculus.

    21.3% currently or previously participated in prediction markets, while 50.3% say they have not and are not interested.

    reports.verasight.io/r/variety10126
  4. 04

    Compared to casinos, do you think prediction markets should be regulated more strictly, less strictly, or about the same?

    35.4% say prediction markets should be regulated about the same as casinos, while 29.4% say they should be regulated more strictly.

    reports.verasight.io/r/variety10126
  5. 05

    Overall, do you think prediction markets cause more benefit or more harm to society?

    44.8% say prediction markets cause more harm than benefit, compared with 17.3% who say they cause more benefit than harm.

    reports.verasight.io/r/variety10126

Cite this topic

April 2026 Verasight Variety Survey, fielded April 21-23, 2026, N=2,000 US adults age 18+, +/- 2.3%.

https://reports.verasight.io/r/variety10126#q-3