# What Americans think about prediction markets Canonical page: https://data.verasight.io/money/prediction-markets-were-familiar-but-rarely-used/ Published: 2026-06-03 > Featured topic in Money & Finance. Roughly 69% are at least slightly familiar with prediction markets, but 80% say they never bet on them and 45% say they cause more harm than benefit. ## Overview: Prediction markets Prediction markets appear familiar to many adults, but that familiarity has not translated into broad participation. About 68.9% are at least slightly familiar with prediction markets, while 80.3% say they never bet on them. On the broader social question, 44.8% say prediction markets cause more harm than benefit and 38.0% are not sure. ## Awareness is broader than use Roughly 68.9% of adults are at least slightly familiar with prediction markets. That includes 27.0% who are somewhat familiar and 8.6% who are very familiar. Actual use is much lower. About 80.3% say they never bet on prediction markets, and 50.3% say they have not participated and are not interested. ## Regulation views cluster around casinos or stricter treatment The largest regulation bucket is parity with casinos: 35.4% say prediction markets should be regulated about the same as casinos. Another 29.4% say prediction markets should be regulated more strictly than casinos, while 9.1% say they should be regulated less strictly and 24.2% are not sure. ## Social benefit remains unsettled Views of social impact lean more negative than positive. About 44.8% say prediction markets cause more harm than benefit, compared with 17.3% who say they cause more benefit than harm. The large 38.0% not-sure share matters because it sits alongside broader familiarity. The pattern is not simply that adults have never heard of prediction markets. It is that many remain unconvinced or undecided. ## Supporting evidence ### 68.9% are at least slightly familiar with prediction markets. Question: How familiar are you with prediction markets, platforms where people buy and sell contracts based on the outcome of future events, such as elections, economic data, or world events? Note: 68.9% are at least slightly familiar with prediction markets, including 35.6% who are somewhat or very familiar. Topline: - Slightly familiar — I have heard of them but don't know much: 33.3% - Not at all familiar — this is the first I am hearing of them: 31.1% - Somewhat familiar — I have a general sense of what they are: 27.0% - Very familiar — I know a lot about how they work: 8.6% ### 80.3% say they never bet on prediction markets. Question: How often, if at all, do you do each of the following activities? - Bet on prediction markets Note: 80.3% say they never bet on prediction markets. Topline: - Never: 80.3% - A few times a year: 7.0% - A few times a month: 4.1% - About once a month: 3.9% - A few times a week: 3.1% ### 44.8% say prediction markets cause more harm than benefit. Question: Overall, do you think prediction markets cause more benefit or more harm to society? Note: 44.8% say prediction markets cause more harm than benefit, compared with 17.3% who say they cause more benefit than harm. Topline: - Not sure: 38.0% - Somewhat more harm than benefit: 24.5% - Much more harm than benefit: 20.3% - Somewhat more benefit than harm: 13.2% - Much more benefit than harm: 4.1% ## Methodology - Mode: Verasight panel recruited via random address-based sampling, random person-to-person text messaging, and dynamic online targeting - Population: US adults age 18+ - Field dates: 2026-04-21 → 2026-04-23 - Base (unweighted): 2,000 - Margin of error: +/- 2.3% - Module: April 2026 Verasight Variety Survey - Sponsor: Verasight - Weight variable: weight - Weighting targets: age, race/ethnicity, sex, income, education, region, metropolitan status ## Sources - [How familiar are you with prediction markets — platforms where people buy and sell contracts based on the outcome of future events, such as elections, economic data, or world events?](https://reports.verasight.io/r/variety10126#q-3): reports.verasight.io/r/variety10126: 68.9% are at least slightly familiar with prediction markets, including 35.6% who are somewhat or very familiar. - [How often, if at all, do you do each of the following activities? - Bet on prediction markets](https://reports.verasight.io/r/variety10126#q-2): reports.verasight.io/r/variety10126: 80.3% say they never bet on prediction markets. - [Have you ever participated in a prediction market? Examples include Polymarket, Kalshi, PredictIt, or Metaculus.](https://reports.verasight.io/r/variety10126#q-4): reports.verasight.io/r/variety10126: 21.3% currently or previously participated in prediction markets, while 50.3% say they have not and are not interested. - [Compared to casinos, do you think prediction markets should be regulated more strictly, less strictly, or about the same?](https://reports.verasight.io/r/variety10126#q-5): reports.verasight.io/r/variety10126: 35.4% say prediction markets should be regulated about the same as casinos, while 29.4% say they should be regulated more strictly. - [Overall, do you think prediction markets cause more benefit or more harm to society?](https://reports.verasight.io/r/variety10126#q-6): reports.verasight.io/r/variety10126: 44.8% say prediction markets cause more harm than benefit, compared with 17.3% who say they cause more benefit than harm. ## Citation April 2026 Verasight Variety Survey, fielded April 21-23, 2026, N=2,000 US adults age 18+, +/- 2.3%. Canonical question URL: [https://reports.verasight.io/r/variety10126#q-3](https://reports.verasight.io/r/variety10126#q-3)