Report · Politics

A third think a foreign country could succeed in swaying a U.S. election

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Asked to imagine a foreign country trying to sway a U.S. presidential election, about a third of Americans (35%) think it would likely succeed in tipping the result, including 8% who see success as very likely, according to an October 2024 Verasight survey.

The largest share (37%) considers the outcome neither likely nor unlikely, while 28% think success unlikely, including 8% who call it very unlikely.

Topline

response scale

Topline scale

A third think a foreign country could succeed in swaying a U.S. election.

Imagine that a foreign country is trying to influence the result of the upcoming US presidential election. How likely do you think it is that they would succeed in tipping the election?

  • Neither likely nor unlikely 37.3%
  • Likely 26.9%
  • Unlikely 20.0%
  • Very likely 8.2%
  • Very unlikely 7.7%

2024 · base n 1,000 · +/- 3.4%

pol

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Methodology

Full methodology
Mode
Verasight panel recruited via random address-based sampling, random person-to-person text messaging, and dynamic online targeting
Field dates
2024-10-01 → 2024-10-11
Base (unweighted)
1,000
Margin of error
+/- 3.4%
Module
pol

Source

Citation

Verasight APSA Omnibus Survey #2024-103, fielded October 1-11, 2024, N=1,000 US adults age 18+, +/- 3.4%.

https://verasight-apsa-2024.tiiny.co

Verasight survey methodology

How Verasight conducts surveys.

This page describes the Verasight general survey contract, separate from how the Data Library packages it. When a wave report is published, its field dates, sample sizes, and module breakdown are listed in that report.

Mode
Verasight panel recruited via random address-based sampling, random person-to-person text messaging, and dynamic online targeting.
Population
US adults age 18+.
Sample design
Surveys are run as omnibus or single-topic waves. Omnibus waves are split into modules with their own respondent set, typically around one thousand respondents per module.
Field window
Each wave specifies its own field dates. Most omnibus waves field across roughly two weeks.
Weighting
Per-module weighting to CPS targets including age, race and ethnicity, sex, income, education, region, and metropolitan status.
Partisanship benchmark
Pew Research Center's NPORS benchmarking surveys, three-year running average.
Vote benchmark
2024 presidential vote population benchmarks.
Margin of error
Typically about plus or minus 3.4 to 3.6 percent per module at standard module sizes. Question-level MoE is recomputed when a base shrinks materially below the module baseline.
Reporting
The canonical report hub is reports.verasight.io. Verified legacy reports remain on their original hosts, and unpublished reports are marked pending.
Transparency
Verasight is a member of the American Association for Public Opinion Research Transparency Initiative.

The canonical report hub is reports.verasight.io; older reports may remain on verified legacy hosts.