Report · Politics

A plurality of Americans put the U.S. unemployment rate between 3.7% and 5.3%

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A plurality of Americans (37%) put the U.S. unemployment rate between 3.68% and 5.33%, according to a June 2026 Verasight survey.

About one-in-five (20%) put it between 5.34% and 7.00% and 15% between 2.01% and 3.67%. Smaller shares spread across the higher ranges, 10% between 7.01% and 8.67%, 6% between 8.68% and 10.33%, and 9% between 10.34% and 12.00%, while just 3% guess below 2.00%.

Topline

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Topline distribution

A plurality of Americans put the U.S. unemployment rate between 3.7% and 5.3%.

The unemployment rate is the percent of people actively searching for work, but who are not presently employed. Since World War II, the national unemployment rate has ranged from a low of 2 percent to a high of 12 percent. What is your best guess about today’s US unemployment rate? Even if you are uncertain, please provide us with your best estimate of the percent of people actively searching for work but who are not presently employed.

  • Between 3.68% and 5.33% 36.7%
  • Between 5.34% and 7.00% 20.2%
  • Between 2.01% and 3.67% 14.9%
  • Between 7.01% and 8.67% 10.0%
  • Between 10.34% and 12.00% 9.0%
  • Between 8.68% and 10.33% 6.4%
  • Between 0.00% and 2.00% 2.8%

2026 · base n 1,000 · +/- 3.2%

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Methodology

Full methodology
Mode
Verasight panel recruited via random address-based sampling, random person-to-person text messaging, and dynamic online targeting
Field dates
2026-06-21 → 2026-06-21
Base (unweighted)
1,000
Margin of error
+/- 3.2%
Module
2

Source

Citation

Verasight MPSA Omnibus Survey #2026-050, fielded June 21-21, 2026, N=1,000 US adults age 18+, +/- 3.2%.

https://reports.verasight.io/r/mpsa26

Verasight survey methodology

How Verasight conducts surveys.

This page describes the Verasight general survey contract, separate from how the Data Library packages it. When a wave report is published, its field dates, sample sizes, and module breakdown are listed in that report.

Mode
Verasight panel recruited via random address-based sampling, random person-to-person text messaging, and dynamic online targeting.
Population
US adults age 18+.
Sample design
Surveys are run as omnibus or single-topic waves. Omnibus waves are split into modules with their own respondent set, typically around one thousand respondents per module.
Field window
Each wave specifies its own field dates. Most omnibus waves field across roughly two weeks.
Weighting
Per-module weighting to CPS targets including age, race and ethnicity, sex, income, education, region, and metropolitan status.
Partisanship benchmark
Pew Research Center's NPORS benchmarking surveys, three-year running average.
Vote benchmark
2024 presidential vote population benchmarks.
Margin of error
Typically about plus or minus 3.4 to 3.6 percent per module at standard module sizes. Question-level MoE is recomputed when a base shrinks materially below the module baseline.
Reporting
The canonical report hub is reports.verasight.io. Verified legacy reports remain on their original hosts, and unpublished reports are marked pending.
Transparency
Verasight is a member of the American Association for Public Opinion Research Transparency Initiative.

The canonical report hub is reports.verasight.io; older reports may remain on verified legacy hosts.