Report · Politics

Half think Republicans will win the most Senate seats in 2026

Reading

Just over half of Americans (51%) think Republicans will win the most Senate seats in the 2026 midterms, compared with 42% who expect Democrats to come out ahead, according to a September 2025 Verasight survey.

Relatively few (7%) think some other party will win the most.

Topline

single choice

Topline distribution

Half think Republicans will win the most Senate seats in 2026.

Thinking about the upcoming 2026 midterm elections, which party do you think will win the most seats in the US Senate?

  • Republicans 50.8%
  • Democrats 42.3%
  • Some other party 7.0%

2025 · base n 1,000 · +/- 3.3%

Verasight APSA Omnibus Survey #2025-119

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Methodology

Full methodology
Mode
Verasight panel recruited via random address-based sampling, random person-to-person text messaging, and dynamic online targeting
Field dates
2025-09-22 → 2025-09-29
Base (unweighted)
1,000
Margin of error
+/- 3.3%
Module
Verasight APSA Omnibus Survey #2025-119

Source

Citation

Verasight APSA Omnibus Survey #2025-119, fielded September 22-29, 2025, N=1,000 US adults age 18+, +/- 3.3%.

https://reports.verasight.io/r/apsa-2025

Verasight survey methodology

How Verasight conducts surveys.

This page describes the Verasight general survey contract, separate from how the Data Library packages it. When a wave report is published, its field dates, sample sizes, and module breakdown are listed in that report.

Mode
Verasight panel recruited via random address-based sampling, random person-to-person text messaging, and dynamic online targeting.
Population
US adults age 18+.
Sample design
Surveys are run as omnibus or single-topic waves. Omnibus waves are split into modules with their own respondent set, typically around one thousand respondents per module.
Field window
Each wave specifies its own field dates. Most omnibus waves field across roughly two weeks.
Weighting
Per-module weighting to CPS targets including age, race and ethnicity, sex, income, education, region, and metropolitan status.
Partisanship benchmark
Pew Research Center's NPORS benchmarking surveys, three-year running average.
Vote benchmark
2024 presidential vote population benchmarks.
Margin of error
Typically about plus or minus 3.4 to 3.6 percent per module at standard module sizes. Question-level MoE is recomputed when a base shrinks materially below the module baseline.
Reporting
The canonical report hub is reports.verasight.io. Verified legacy reports remain on their original hosts, and unpublished reports are marked pending.
Transparency
Verasight is a member of the American Association for Public Opinion Research Transparency Initiative.

The canonical report hub is reports.verasight.io; older reports may remain on verified legacy hosts.