Half think Republicans will win the most Senate seats in 2026

Sep 22–29, 2025 · n = 1,000 · MoE ±3.3%Source report ↗

Core finding

Just over half of Americans (51%) think Republicans will win the most Senate seats in the 2026 midterms, compared with 42% who expect Democrats to come out ahead, according to a September 2025 Verasight survey.

Relatively few (7%) think some other party will win the most.

Topline distribution

Half think Republicans will win the most Senate seats in 2026.

Thinking about the upcoming 2026 midterm elections, which party do you think will win the most seats in the US Senate?

Republicans
50.8%
Democrats
42.3%
Some other party
7.0%

n = 1,000 · Sep 22–29, 2025 · MoE ±3.3%

ModeVerasight panel recruited via random address-based sampling, random person-to-person text messaging, and dynamic online targeting
PopulationUS adults age 18+
Field datesSep 22–29, 2025
Base (unweighted)1,000
Margin of error±3.3%
ModuleVerasight APSA Omnibus Survey #2025-119
SponsorVerasight
Weight variableweight
Weighting targetsage, race/ethnicity, sex, income, education, region, metropolitan status

Sources

  1. 01

    Thinking about the upcoming 2026 midterm elections, which party do you think will win the most seats in the US Senate?

    reports.verasight.io/r/apsa-2025

Cite this question

Verasight APSA Omnibus Survey #2025-119, fielded September 22-29, 2025, N=1,000 US adults age 18+, +/- 3.3%.