Half think Republicans will win the most Senate seats in 2026
Core finding
Just over half of Americans (51%) think Republicans will win the most Senate seats in the 2026 midterms, compared with 42% who expect Democrats to come out ahead, according to a September 2025 Verasight survey.
Relatively few (7%) think some other party will win the most.
Topline distribution
Half think Republicans will win the most Senate seats in 2026.
Thinking about the upcoming 2026 midterm elections, which party do you think will win the most seats in the US Senate?
n = 1,000 · Sep 22–29, 2025 · MoE ±3.3%
Methodology
Full methodology →| Mode | Verasight panel recruited via random address-based sampling, random person-to-person text messaging, and dynamic online targeting |
|---|---|
| Population | US adults age 18+ |
| Field dates | Sep 22–29, 2025 |
| Base (unweighted) | 1,000 |
| Margin of error | ±3.3% |
| Module | Verasight APSA Omnibus Survey #2025-119 |
| Sponsor | Verasight |
| Weight variable | weight |
| Weighting targets | age, race/ethnicity, sex, income, education, region, metropolitan status |
Sources
- reports.verasight.io/r/apsa-2025
Thinking about the upcoming 2026 midterm elections, which party do you think will win the most seats in the US Senate?
Cite this question
Verasight APSA Omnibus Survey #2025-119, fielded September 22-29, 2025, N=1,000 US adults age 18+, +/- 3.3%.