How Americans see the 2026 midterms shaping up
Overview
Heading into the 2026 midterms, stated turnout intent is high and expectations tilt narrowly toward Democrats, though about a quarter of Americans are unsure who will win control of Congress.
The mood is sour. 62% say the country is on the wrong track, and 43% give President Trump the lowest possible rating for his job performance.
Most plan to turn out
78.3% say they have voted before and plan to vote this fall, and another 4.6% are first-time voters who plan to participate.
On how they will decide, 25.3% will back the best-qualified candidate and 23.3% will compare policy positions, while 23.9% will vote Democratic no matter what and 15.5% Republican no matter what.
Topline
39.3% expect Democrats to win the House; 35.0% expect Republicans.
Thinking about the upcoming election in November 2026, which party do you think will win the most seats in the U.S. House of Representatives?
- Democrats 39.3%
- Republicans 35.0%
- I don’t know 25.6%
Verasight MPSA Omnibus Survey #2026-050
View source dataA narrow Democratic edge in expectations
39.3% expect Democrats to win the most House seats versus 35.0% who expect Republicans, with 25.6% unsure.
Expectations for the Senate are similar: 38.7% say Democrats and 36.0% Republicans, with 25.2% unsure.
Topline
62.0% say the country is on the wrong track.
Do you think that things in the country are headed in the right direction, or are they off on the wrong track?
- Wrong track 62.0%
- Right direction 25.1%
- Unsure 12.9%
Verasight MPSA Omnibus Survey #2026-050
View source dataAdditional supporting data from this section.
Stacked breakdown
43.0% rate President Trump's performance a 0 out of 10.
On a scale of 0 to 10, how would you rate President Trump’s job performance? 0 represents "very poor performance" and 10 represents "very good performance".
- 0
- 43.0%
- 1
- 5.0%
- 2
- 4.9%
- 3
- 3.8%
- 4
- 3.6%
- 5
- 4.3%
- 6
- 3.8%
- 7
- 5.5%
- 8
- 8.2%
- 9
- 5.3%
Verasight MPSA Omnibus Survey #2026-050
View source dataAgainst a sour national mood
62.0% say the country is on the wrong track, while 25.1% say it is headed in the right direction.
On a 0-to-10 scale, 43.0% rate President Trump's job performance a 0, the lowest possible score, compared with 12.6% who give him a 10.
Methodology
Full methodology- Mode
- Verasight panel recruited via random address-based sampling, random person-to-person text messaging, and dynamic online targeting
- Population
- US adults age 18+
- Field dates
- 2026-06-21 → 2026-06-21
- Base (unweighted)
- 1,000
- Margin of error
- +/- 3.2%
- Module
- 2
- Sponsor
- Verasight
- Weight variable
- weight
- Weighting targets
- age, race/ethnicity, sex, income, education, region, metropolitan status
Sources
[5]- 01Are you a voter, and are you planning on voting in the upcoming November 2026 election?78.3% say they have voted before and plan to vote in November 2026.reports.verasight.io/r/mpsa26
- 02Thinking about the upcoming election in November 2026, which party do you think will win the most seats in the U.S. House of Representatives?39.3% expect Democrats to win the most U.S. House seats; 35.0% expect Republicans.reports.verasight.io/r/mpsa26
- 03Thinking about the upcoming election in November 2026, which party do you think will win the most seats in the U.S. Senate?38.7% expect Democrats to win the most U.S. Senate seats; 36.0% expect Republicans.reports.verasight.io/r/mpsa26
- 04Do you think that things in the country are headed in the right direction, or are they off on the wrong track?62.0% say the country is on the wrong track; 25.1% say it is headed in the right direction.reports.verasight.io/r/mpsa26
- 05On a scale of 0 to 10, how would you rate President Trump’s job performance? 0 represents "very poor performance" and 10 represents "very good performance".43.0% rate President Trump's job performance a 0 on a 0-to-10 scale, the lowest possible score.reports.verasight.io/r/mpsa26
Citation
Verasight MPSA Omnibus Survey #2026-050, fielded June 21-21, 2026, N=1,000 US adults age 18+, +/- 3.2%.