# How Americans see the 2026 midterms shaping up

Canonical page: https://data.verasight.io/politics/how-americans-see-the-2026-midterms-shaping-up/
Published: 2026-06-21

> Featured topic in Politics.

About 78% of Americans have voted before and plan to vote again this fall, and slightly more expect Democrats than Republicans to win the House and Senate, against a backdrop where 62% say the country is on the wrong track.

## Overview: High turnout intent, a narrow Democratic lean

Heading into the 2026 midterms, stated turnout intent is high and expectations tilt narrowly toward Democrats, though about a quarter of Americans are unsure who will win control of Congress.

The mood is sour. 62% say the country is on the wrong track, and 43% give President Trump the lowest possible rating for his job performance.

## Most plan to turn out

78.3% say they have voted before and plan to vote this fall, and another 4.6% are first-time voters who plan to participate.

On how they will decide, 25.3% will back the best-qualified candidate and 23.3% will compare policy positions, while 23.9% will vote Democratic no matter what and 15.5% Republican no matter what.

## A narrow Democratic edge in expectations

39.3% expect Democrats to win the most House seats versus 35.0% who expect Republicans, with 25.6% unsure.

Expectations for the Senate are similar: 38.7% say Democrats and 36.0% Republicans, with 25.2% unsure.

## Against a sour national mood

62.0% say the country is on the wrong track, while 25.1% say it is headed in the right direction.

On a 0-to-10 scale, 43.0% rate President Trump's job performance a 0, the lowest possible score, compared with 12.6% who give him a 10.

## Supporting evidence

### 62.0% say the country is on the wrong track.

Question: Do you think that things in the country are headed in the right direction, or are they off on the wrong track?

Note: 62.0% say the country is on the wrong track; 25.1% say it is headed in the right direction.

Topline:

- Wrong track: 62.0%
- Right direction: 25.1%
- Unsure: 12.9%

### 39.3% expect Democrats to win the House; 35.0% expect Republicans.

Question: Thinking about the upcoming election in November 2026, which party do you think will win the most seats in the U.S. House of Representatives?

Note: 39.3% expect Democrats to win the most U.S. House seats; 35.0% expect Republicans.

Topline:

- Democrats: 39.3%
- Republicans: 35.0%
- I don’t know: 25.6%

### 43.0% rate President Trump's performance a 0 out of 10.

Question: On a scale of 0 to 10, how would you rate President Trump’s job performance? 0 represents "very poor performance" and 10 represents "very good performance".

Note: 43.0% rate President Trump's job performance a 0 on a 0-to-10 scale, the lowest possible score.

Topline:

- 0: 43.0%
- 10: 12.6%
- 8: 8.2%
- 7: 5.5%
- 9: 5.3%
- 1: 5.0%
- 2: 4.9%
- 5: 4.3%
- 6: 3.8%
- 3: 3.8%

## Methodology

- Mode: Verasight panel recruited via random address-based sampling, random person-to-person text messaging, and dynamic online targeting
- Population: US adults age 18+
- Field dates: 2026-06-21 → 2026-06-21
- Base (unweighted): 1,000
- Margin of error: +/- 3.2%
- Module: 2
- Sponsor: Verasight
- Weight variable: weight
- Weighting targets: age, race/ethnicity, sex, income, education, region, metropolitan status

## Sources

- [Are you a voter, and are you planning on voting in the upcoming November 2026 election?](https://reports.verasight.io/r/mpsa26#q-75): reports.verasight.io/r/mpsa26: 78.3% say they have voted before and plan to vote in November 2026.
- [Thinking about the upcoming election in November 2026, which party do you think will win the most seats in the U.S. House of Representatives?](https://reports.verasight.io/r/mpsa26#q-78): reports.verasight.io/r/mpsa26: 39.3% expect Democrats to win the most U.S. House seats; 35.0% expect Republicans.
- [Thinking about the upcoming election in November 2026, which party do you think will win the most seats in the U.S. Senate?](https://reports.verasight.io/r/mpsa26#q-77): reports.verasight.io/r/mpsa26: 38.7% expect Democrats to win the most U.S. Senate seats; 36.0% expect Republicans.
- [Do you think that things in the country are headed in the right direction, or are they off on the wrong track?](https://reports.verasight.io/r/mpsa26#q-99): reports.verasight.io/r/mpsa26: 62.0% say the country is on the wrong track; 25.1% say it is headed in the right direction.
- [On a scale of 0 to 10, how would you rate President Trump’s job performance? 0 represents "very poor performance" and 10 represents "very good performance".](https://reports.verasight.io/r/mpsa26#q-100): reports.verasight.io/r/mpsa26: 43.0% rate President Trump's job performance a 0 on a 0-to-10 scale, the lowest possible score.

## Citation

Verasight MPSA Omnibus Survey #2026-050, fielded June 21-21, 2026, N=1,000 US adults age 18+, +/- 3.2%.

Canonical question URL: [https://reports.verasight.io/r/mpsa26#q-75](https://reports.verasight.io/r/mpsa26#q-75)