# Americans expect Democrats to win the House, while the Senate is a closer call

Canonical page: https://data.verasight.io/politics/midterm-expectations-house-senate/
Published: 2026-10-23

> Featured topic in Politics.

59.4% of Americans expect Democrats to win the most House seats in November, and 52.8% expect the same for the Senate. 36.6% expect Democrats to win both.

## Overview: Democrats are expected to win the House

In a Verasight survey of 1,000 U.S. adults conducted September 25 to 30, 2026, 59.4% expect Democrats to win the most House seats in November. For the Senate, 52.8% expect Democrats to win the most seats and 47.2% expect Republicans to.

Asked about both chambers together, 36.6% expect Democrats to win both and 27.8% expect Republicans to win both. These are expectations, not voting plans or a forecast.

## The House looks like a Democratic pickup

Expectations for the House favor Democrats by 59.4% to 40.6%. The question asks which party will win the most seats and offered only those two answers.

The survey measures what people expect to happen, not which party they plan to vote for.

## The Senate is a closer call

For the Senate, 52.8% expect Democrats to win the most seats and 47.2% expect Republicans to.

Only some Senate seats are on the ballot, so winning the most seats in November does not necessarily mean winning control of the chamber.

## No single outcome has a majority

Of four combinations, a Democratic sweep draws 36.6% and a Republican sweep 27.8%. Another 22.4% expect a Republican Senate with a Democratic House, and 13.1% the reverse.

A Democratic sweep leads, but well short of a majority.

## Supporting evidence

### 59.4% of Americans expect Democrats to win the most House seats in November, and 40.6% expect Republicans to.

Question: Thinking about the upcoming election in November, which party do you think will win the most seats in House of Representatives?

Topline:

- Democrats: 59.4%
- Republicans: 40.6%

### 52.8% expect Democrats to win the most Senate seats, and 47.2% expect Republicans to.

Question: Thinking about the upcoming election in November, which party do you think will win the most seats in the Senate?

Topline:

- Democrats: 52.8%
- Republicans: 47.2%

### 36.6% expect Democrats to win both the House and the Senate, and 27.8% expect Republicans to win both.

Question: Which of the following outcomes do you think is most likely after this year’s midterm elections?

Topline:

- Democratic Senate/Democratic House: 36.6%
- Republican Senate/Republican House: 27.8%
- Republican Senate/Democratic House: 22.4%
- Democratic Senate/Republican House: 13.1%

## Methodology

- Mode: Verasight panel recruited via random address-based sampling, random person-to-person text messaging, and dynamic online targeting
- Population: US adults age 18+
- Field dates: 2026-09-25 → 2026-09-30
- Base (unweighted): 1,000
- Margin of error: +/- 3.5%
- Module: Democracy, Politics, & Participation
- Sponsor: Verasight
- Weight variable: weight
- Weighting targets: age, race/ethnicity, sex, income, education, region, metropolitan status

## Sources

- [Thinking about the upcoming election in November, which party do you think will win the most seats in House of Representatives?](https://reports.verasight.io/r/2026-153-apsa-omnibus-report#q-29): reports.verasight.io/r/2026-153-apsa-omnibus-report
- [Which of the following outcomes do you think is most likely after this year’s midterm elections?](https://reports.verasight.io/r/2026-153-apsa-omnibus-report#q-26): reports.verasight.io/r/2026-153-apsa-omnibus-report
- [Thinking about the upcoming election in November, which party do you think will win the most seats in the Senate?](https://reports.verasight.io/r/2026-153-apsa-omnibus-report#q-28): reports.verasight.io/r/2026-153-apsa-omnibus-report

## Citation

APSA Omnibus Survey #2026-153, fielded September 25-30, 2026, N=1,000 US adults age 18+, +/- 3.5%.

Canonical question URL: [https://reports.verasight.io/r/2026-153-apsa-omnibus-report#q-29](https://reports.verasight.io/r/2026-153-apsa-omnibus-report#q-29)