Most Americans don't trust polls or prediction markets to call elections
Core finding
Verasight surveyed 1,000 U.S. adults from September 25 to 30, 2026. 59.4% of Americans don't trust either polls or prediction markets to figure out who will win an election. Polls are trusted more by 20.9%, prediction markets by 6.4% and both equally by 13.4%.
The question describes polls as surveys asking voters who they plan to support, and prediction markets as platforms where users trade contracts on election outcomes.
Topline distribution
Most Americans don't trust polls or prediction markets to call elections.
When it comes to figuring out who is likely to win an election, which do you trust more?
n = 1,000 · Sep 25–30, 2026 · MoE ±3.5%
Methodology
Full methodology →| Mode | Verasight panel recruited via random address-based sampling, random person-to-person text messaging, and dynamic online targeting |
|---|---|
| Population | US adults age 18+ |
| Field dates | Sep 25–30, 2026 |
| Base (unweighted) | 1,000 |
| Margin of error | ±3.5% |
| Module | Democracy, Politics, & Participation |
| Sponsor | Verasight |
| Weight variable | weight |
| Weighting targets | age, race/ethnicity, sex, income, education, region, metropolitan status |
Sources
- reports.verasight.io/r/2026-153-apsa-omnibus-report
When it comes to figuring out who is likely to win an election, which do you trust more?
Cite this question
APSA Omnibus Survey #2026-153, fielded September 25-30, 2026, N=1,000 US adults age 18+, +/- 3.5%.