# Most Americans don't trust polls or prediction markets to call elections

Canonical page: https://data.verasight.io/politics/most-americans-dont-trust-polls-or-prediction-markets-to-call-elections/

> Indexed question in Politics.

## Reading

Verasight surveyed 1,000 U.S. adults from September 25 to 30, 2026. 59.4% of Americans don't trust either polls or prediction markets to figure out who will win an election. Polls are trusted more by 20.9%, prediction markets by 6.4% and both equally by 13.4%.

The question describes polls as surveys asking voters who they plan to support, and prediction markets as platforms where users trade contracts on election outcomes.

## Topline

When it comes to figuring out who is likely to win an election, which do you trust more?

Most Americans don't trust polls or prediction markets to call elections.

- I don’t trust either one: 59.4%
- Public opinion polls (surveys asking voters who they plan to vote for): 20.9%
- I trust both about equally: 13.4%
- Prediction markets (platforms where users buy and sell contracts based on who they think will win an election): 6.4%

## Methodology

- Mode: Verasight panel recruited via random address-based sampling, random person-to-person text messaging, and dynamic online targeting
- Population: US adults age 18+
- Field dates: 2026-09-25 → 2026-09-30
- Base (unweighted): 1,000
- Margin of error: +/- 3.5%
- Module: Democracy, Politics, & Participation
- Sponsor: Verasight
- Weight variable: weight
- Weighting targets: age, race/ethnicity, sex, income, education, region, metropolitan status

## Source

- Canonical question URL: [https://reports.verasight.io/r/2026-153-apsa-omnibus-report#q-30](https://reports.verasight.io/r/2026-153-apsa-omnibus-report#q-30)

## Citation

APSA Omnibus Survey #2026-153, fielded September 25-30, 2026, N=1,000 US adults age 18+, +/- 3.5%.

Canonical question URL: [https://reports.verasight.io/r/2026-153-apsa-omnibus-report#q-30](https://reports.verasight.io/r/2026-153-apsa-omnibus-report#q-30)