Report · Politics

Nearly half of Americans say another civil war is unlikely within ten years

Reading

In a Verasight survey of 1,000 U.S. adults conducted July 14 to 24, 2025, 48% of Americans said the United States is unlikely to experience another civil war within the next ten years. Including 23% who said extremely unlikely, 16% who said moderately unlikely, and 9% who said slightly unlikely.

About a third said another civil war is at least slightly likely (35%), with 7% who said extremely likely, 7% who said moderately likely, and 20% who said slightly likely. Another 18% were neutral.

Topline

response scale

Topline scale

48% of Americans say another civil war within ten years is unlikely.

How likely do you think it is that the United States will experience another civil war within the next ten years?

  • Extremely unlikely 22.8%
  • Slightly likely 20.4%
  • Neither likely nor unlikely 17.8%
  • Moderately unlikely 16.0%
  • Slightly unlikely 9.0%
  • Moderately likely 7.4%
  • Extremely likely 6.6%

2025 · base n 1,000 · +/- 3.1%

EPOVB Conference Omnibus Survey #2025-059

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Methodology

Full methodology
Mode
Verasight panel recruited via random address-based sampling, random person-to-person text messaging, and dynamic online targeting
Field dates
2025-07-14 → 2025-07-24
Base (unweighted)
1,000
Margin of error
+/- 3.1%
Module
EPOVB Conference Omnibus Survey #2025-059

Source

  • 01
    Nearly half of Americans say another civil war is unlikely within ten yearsreports.verasight.io/reports/epovb-conference-omnibus-survey-2025-059

Citation

EPOVB Conference Omnibus Survey #2025-059, fielded July 14-24, 2025, N=1,000 US adults age 18+, +/- 3.1%.

https://reports.verasight.io/reports/epovb-conference-omnibus-survey-2025-059#how-likely-do-you-think-it-is-that-the-united-states-will-experience-another-civil-war-within-the-next-ten-years

Verasight survey methodology

How Verasight conducts surveys.

This page describes the Verasight general survey contract, separate from how the Data Library packages it. Each wave's specific field dates, sample sizes, and module breakdown are listed in that wave's report.

Mode
Verasight panel recruited via random address-based sampling, random person-to-person text messaging, and dynamic online targeting.
Population
US adults age 18+.
Sample design
Surveys are run as omnibus or single-topic waves. Omnibus waves are split into modules with their own respondent set, typically around one thousand respondents per module.
Field window
Each wave specifies its own field dates. Most omnibus waves field across roughly two weeks.
Weighting
Per-module weighting to CPS targets including age, race and ethnicity, sex, income, education, region, and metropolitan status.
Partisanship benchmark
Pew Research Center's NPORS benchmarking surveys, three-year running average.
Vote benchmark
2024 presidential vote population benchmarks.
Margin of error
Typically about plus or minus 3.4 to 3.6 percent per module at standard module sizes. Question-level MoE is recomputed when a base shrinks materially below the module baseline.
Reporting
Every wave is published as a standalone report at verasight.io/reports with full instrument and methodology.
Transparency
AAPOR transparency standards.

Wave-specific methodology, full weighting variable lists, and verbatim instrument text live in each report at verasight.io/reports.