Report · Politics

Nuclear war within three years seems unlikely to half of Americans

Reading

In a Verasight survey of 1,000 U.S. adults conducted Oct. 1 to 11, 2024, 50% of Americans said a nuclear war in the next three years is unlikely. This includes 27% who said unlikely and 23% who said very unlikely.

About a third said a nuclear war in this window is likely (32%), with 24% who said likely and 8% who said very likely. Another 19% said they do not know.

Topline

response scale

Topline scale

50% of Americans say nuclear war within three years is unlikely.

In your opinion, how likely is a nuclear war in the next 3 years?

  • Unlikely 26.7%
  • Likely 23.6%
  • Very Unlikely 22.8%
  • Don’t Know 18.8%
  • Very Likely 8.0%

2024 · base n 1,000 · +/- 3.4%

pol

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Methodology

Full methodology
Mode
Verasight panel recruited via random address-based sampling, random person-to-person text messaging, and dynamic online targeting
Field dates
2024-10-01 → 2024-10-11
Base (unweighted)
1,000
Margin of error
+/- 3.4%
Module
pol

Source

Citation

Verasight APSA Omnibus Survey #2024-103, fielded October 1-11, 2024, N=1,000 US adults age 18+, +/- 3.4%.

https://verasight-apsa-2024.tiiny.co

Verasight survey methodology

How Verasight conducts surveys.

This page describes the Verasight general survey contract, separate from how the Data Library packages it. When a wave report is published, its field dates, sample sizes, and module breakdown are listed in that report.

Mode
Verasight panel recruited via random address-based sampling, random person-to-person text messaging, and dynamic online targeting.
Population
US adults age 18+.
Sample design
Surveys are run as omnibus or single-topic waves. Omnibus waves are split into modules with their own respondent set, typically around one thousand respondents per module.
Field window
Each wave specifies its own field dates. Most omnibus waves field across roughly two weeks.
Weighting
Per-module weighting to CPS targets including age, race and ethnicity, sex, income, education, region, and metropolitan status.
Partisanship benchmark
Pew Research Center's NPORS benchmarking surveys, three-year running average.
Vote benchmark
2024 presidential vote population benchmarks.
Margin of error
Typically about plus or minus 3.4 to 3.6 percent per module at standard module sizes. Question-level MoE is recomputed when a base shrinks materially below the module baseline.
Reporting
The canonical report hub is reports.verasight.io. Verified legacy reports remain on their original hosts, and unpublished reports are marked pending.
Transparency
Verasight is a member of the American Association for Public Opinion Research Transparency Initiative.

The canonical report hub is reports.verasight.io; older reports may remain on verified legacy hosts.