Nuclear war within three years seems unlikely to half of Americans
Core finding
In a Verasight survey of 1,000 U.S. adults conducted Oct. 1 to 11, 2024, 50% of Americans said a nuclear war in the next three years is unlikely. This includes 27% who said unlikely and 23% who said very unlikely.
About a third said a nuclear war in this window is likely (32%), with 24% who said likely and 8% who said very likely. Another 19% said they do not know.
Topline scale
50% of Americans say nuclear war within three years is unlikely.
In your opinion, how likely is a nuclear war in the next 3 years?
n = 1,000 · Oct 1–11, 2024 · MoE ±3.4%
Methodology
Full methodology →| Mode | Verasight panel recruited via random address-based sampling, random person-to-person text messaging, and dynamic online targeting |
|---|---|
| Population | US adults age 18+ |
| Field dates | Oct 1–11, 2024 |
| Base (unweighted) | 1,000 |
| Margin of error | ±3.4% |
| Module | pol |
| Sponsor | Verasight |
| Weight variable | weight |
| Weighting targets | age, race/ethnicity, sex, income, education, region, metropolitan status |
Sources
- verasight-apsa-2024.tiiny.co
In your opinion, how likely is a nuclear war in the next 3 years?
Cite this question
Verasight APSA Omnibus Survey #2024-103, fielded October 1-11, 2024, N=1,000 US adults age 18+, +/- 3.4%.