# Nuclear war within three years seems unlikely to half of Americans

Canonical page: https://data.verasight.io/politics/nuclear-war-within-three-years-seems-unlikely-to-half-of-americans/

> Indexed question in Politics.

## Reading

In a Verasight survey of 1,000 U.S. adults conducted Oct. 1 to 11, 2024, 50% of Americans said a nuclear war in the next three years is unlikely. This includes 27% who said unlikely and 23% who said very unlikely.

About a third said a nuclear war in this window is likely (32%), with 24% who said likely and 8% who said very likely. Another 19% said they do not know.

## Topline

In your opinion, how likely is a nuclear war in the next 3 years?

50% of Americans say nuclear war within three years is unlikely.

Net findings combine adjacent response options from the same scale.

- Unlikely: 26.7%
- Likely: 23.6%
- Very Unlikely: 22.8%
- Don’t Know: 18.8%
- Very Likely: 8.0%

## Methodology

- Mode: Verasight panel recruited via random address-based sampling, random person-to-person text messaging, and dynamic online targeting
- Population: US adults age 18+
- Field dates: 2024-10-01 → 2024-10-11
- Base (unweighted): 1,000
- Margin of error: +/- 3.4%
- Module: pol
- Sponsor: Verasight
- Weight variable: weight
- Weighting targets: age, race/ethnicity, sex, income, education, region, metropolitan status

## Source

- Canonical question URL: [https://verasight-apsa-2024.tiiny.co#likelihood-of-nuclear-war-in-next-3-years](https://verasight-apsa-2024.tiiny.co#likelihood-of-nuclear-war-in-next-3-years)

## Citation

Verasight APSA Omnibus Survey #2024-103, fielded October 1-11, 2024, N=1,000 US adults age 18+, +/- 3.4%.

Canonical question URL: [https://verasight-apsa-2024.tiiny.co#likelihood-of-nuclear-war-in-next-3-years](https://verasight-apsa-2024.tiiny.co#likelihood-of-nuclear-war-in-next-3-years)