Report · Politics

The Ukraine war will likely last past 2026

Reading

In a Verasight survey of 1,000 U.S. adults conducted Dec. 22, 2025 to Jan. 5, 2026, 55% of Americans said the war in Ukraine is unlikely to end in 2026. Including 36% who said not very likely and another 19% who said not at all likely.

About a third said the war is at least somewhat likely to end in 2026 (33%), with 23% who said somewhat likely and another 11% who said very likely. Another 12% said they are not sure.

Topline

response scale

Topline scale

55% of Americans say the Ukraine war is unlikely to end in 2026.

How likely do you think it is that the war in Ukraine will end in 2026?

  • Not very likely 35.9%
  • Somewhat likely 22.6%
  • Not at all likely 18.8%
  • Not sure 12.1%
  • Very likely 10.6%

2025 · base n 1,000 · +/- 2.2%

pop_culture

View source

Methodology

Full methodology
Mode
Verasight panel recruited via random address-based sampling, random person-to-person text messaging, and dynamic online targeting
Field dates
2025-12-22 → 2026-01-05
Base (unweighted)
1,000
Margin of error
+/- 2.2%
Module
pop_culture

Source

  • 01
    The Ukraine war will likely last past 2026reports.verasight.io/reports/2026-predictions-survey-2025-183

Citation

2026 Predictions Survey #2025-183, fielded December 22, 2025-January 5, 2026, N=1,000 United States adults, +/- 2.2%.

https://reports.verasight.io/reports/2026-predictions-survey-2025-183#q-17

Verasight survey methodology

How Verasight conducts surveys.

This page describes the Verasight general survey contract, separate from how the Data Library packages it. Each wave's specific field dates, sample sizes, and module breakdown are listed in that wave's report.

Mode
Verasight panel recruited via random address-based sampling, random person-to-person text messaging, and dynamic online targeting.
Population
US adults age 18+.
Sample design
Surveys are run as omnibus or single-topic waves. Omnibus waves are split into modules with their own respondent set, typically around one thousand respondents per module.
Field window
Each wave specifies its own field dates. Most omnibus waves field across roughly two weeks.
Weighting
Per-module weighting to CPS targets including age, race and ethnicity, sex, income, education, region, and metropolitan status.
Partisanship benchmark
Pew Research Center's NPORS benchmarking surveys, three-year running average.
Vote benchmark
2024 presidential vote population benchmarks.
Margin of error
Typically about plus or minus 3.4 to 3.6 percent per module at standard module sizes. Question-level MoE is recomputed when a base shrinks materially below the module baseline.
Reporting
Every wave is published as a standalone report at verasight.io/reports with full instrument and methodology.
Transparency
AAPOR transparency standards.

Wave-specific methodology, full weighting variable lists, and verbatim instrument text live in each report at verasight.io/reports.