The Ukraine war will likely last past 2026
Core finding
In a Verasight survey of 1,000 U.S. adults conducted Dec. 22, 2025 to Jan. 5, 2026, 55% of Americans said the war in Ukraine is unlikely to end in 2026. This includes 36% who said not very likely and another 19% who said not at all likely.
About a third said the war is at least somewhat likely to end in 2026 (33%), with 23% who said somewhat likely and another 11% who said very likely. Another 12% said they are not sure.
Topline scale
55% of Americans say the Ukraine war is unlikely to end in 2026.
How likely do you think it is that the war in Ukraine will end in 2026?
n = 1,000 · Dec 22, 2025 – Jan 5, 2026 · MoE ±3.1%
Methodology
Full methodology →| Mode | Verasight panel recruited via random address-based sampling, random person-to-person text messaging, and dynamic online targeting |
|---|---|
| Population | United States adults |
| Field dates | Dec 22, 2025 – Jan 5, 2026 |
| Base (unweighted) | 1,000 |
| Margin of error | ±3.1% |
| Module | predictions |
| Sponsor | Verasight |
| Weight variable | weight for AI and predictions questions; weight_popculture for pop culture questions |
| Weighting targets | age, race/ethnicity, sex, income, education, region, metropolitan status |
Sources
- reports.verasight.io/r/2026-predictions
How likely do you think it is that the war in Ukraine will end in 2026?
Cite this question
2026 Predictions Survey #2025-183, fielded December 22, 2025-January 5, 2026, N=1,000 United States adults, +/- 3.1%.