# The Ukraine war will likely last past 2026

Canonical page: https://data.verasight.io/politics/the-ukraine-war-will-likely-last-past-2026/

> Indexed question in Politics.

## Reading

In a Verasight survey of 1,000 U.S. adults conducted Dec. 22, 2025 to Jan. 5, 2026, 55% of Americans said the war in Ukraine is unlikely to end in 2026. This includes 36% who said not very likely and another 19% who said not at all likely.

About a third said the war is at least somewhat likely to end in 2026 (33%), with 23% who said somewhat likely and another 11% who said very likely. Another 12% said they are not sure.

## Topline

How likely do you think it is that the war in Ukraine will end in 2026?

55% of Americans say the Ukraine war is unlikely to end in 2026.

Net findings combine adjacent response options from the same scale.

- Not very likely: 35.8%
- Somewhat likely: 22.5%
- Not at all likely: 18.6%
- Not sure: 12.1%
- Very likely: 10.9%

## Methodology

- Mode: Verasight panel recruited via random address-based sampling, random person-to-person text messaging, and dynamic online targeting
- Population: United States adults
- Field dates: 2025-12-22 → 2026-01-05
- Base (unweighted): 1,000
- Margin of error: +/- 3.1%
- Module: predictions
- Sponsor: Verasight
- Weight variable: weight for AI and predictions questions; weight_popculture for pop culture questions
- Weighting targets: age, race/ethnicity, sex, income, education, region, metropolitan status

## Source

- Canonical question URL: [https://reports.verasight.io/r/2026-predictions#likelihood-of-the-ukraine-war-ending](https://reports.verasight.io/r/2026-predictions#likelihood-of-the-ukraine-war-ending)

## Citation

2026 Predictions Survey #2025-183, fielded December 22, 2025-January 5, 2026, N=1,000 United States adults, +/- 3.1%.

Canonical question URL: [https://reports.verasight.io/r/2026-predictions#likelihood-of-the-ukraine-war-ending](https://reports.verasight.io/r/2026-predictions#likelihood-of-the-ukraine-war-ending)