Voter confidence in the 2026 vote count
Overview
Most adults express at least some confidence that votes will be counted as intended in the 2026 midterms, while expectations for party control of Congress remain split.
Roughly 68% say they are very or somewhat confident that votes nationwide will be counted as voters intend. About 45% expect Democrats to win the most House seats, while 39% expect Republicans to win the most Senate seats.
Topline
68% are confident votes will be counted as intended in the 2026 midterms.
How confident are you that votes nationwide will be counted as voters intend in the November 2026 election for the U.S. Congress?
- Somewhat confident 46.3%
- Not very confident 23.2%
- Very confident 21.4%
- Not at all confident 9.1%
Module 3: Elections, Civic Life, & the Environment
View source dataMost adults are at least somewhat confident in the vote count
About 68% of adults say they are confident that votes nationwide will be counted as voters intend in the November 2026 congressional elections.
This includes 21% who are very confident and 46% who are somewhat confident. Roughly 32% say they are not very confident or not at all confident.
Crosstab view
45% expect Democrats to win the House, while 39% expect Republicans to win the Senate.
Thinking about the upcoming midterm elections, which party do you think will win the most seats in the US House of Representatives?
Thinking about the upcoming midterm elections, which party do you think will win the most seats in the US House of Representatives?
- Democrats
- 45.4%
- Republicans
- 33.5%
- Don't know
- 21.1%
Thinking about the upcoming midterm elections, which party do you think will win the most seats in the US Senate?
- Republicans
- 39.1%
- Democrats
- 34.9%
- Don't know
- 26.0%
Module 3: Elections, Civic Life, & the Environment
View source dataAdults split over which party will control Congress
For the U.S. House, 45% of adults expect Democrats to win the most seats, 34% expect Republicans to win the most seats, and 21% say they do not know.
For the U.S. Senate, 39% expect Republicans to win the most seats, 35% expect Democrats to win the most seats, and 26% say they do not know.
Competition and vote-count confidence coexist
Taken together, the trust and chamber questions show adults expecting a live contest without rejecting the vote count outright.
The stronger read is not total confidence or total distrust. It is a public that sees the election as competitive while most still say votes will be counted as intended.
Methodology
Full methodology- Mode
- Verasight panel recruited via random address-based sampling, random person-to-person text messaging, and dynamic online targeting
- Population
- US adults age 18+
- Field dates
- 2026-03-06 → 2026-03-16
- Base (unweighted)
- 1,000
- Margin of error
- +/- 3.5%
- Module
- Module 3: Elections, Civic Life, & the Environment
- Sponsor
- Verasight
- Weight variable
- weight
- Weighting targets
- age, race/ethnicity, sex, income, education, region, metropolitan status
Sources
[3]- 01How confident are you that votes nationwide will be counted as voters intend in the November 2026 election for the U.S. Congress?Core trust measure for whether the 2026 vote count will reflect voter intent.reports.verasight.io/reports/omnibus-2026-044
- 02Thinking about the upcoming midterm elections, which party do you think will win the most seats in the US House of Representatives?Adds the House expectation frame that makes the election feel competitive rather than settled.reports.verasight.io/reports/omnibus-2026-044
- 03Thinking about the upcoming midterm elections, which party do you think will win the most seats in the US Senate?Adds the same competitive frame for the Senate.reports.verasight.io/reports/omnibus-2026-044
Citation
Verasight Client Omnibus Survey #2026-044, fielded March 6-16, 2026, N=1,000 US adults age 18+, +/- 3.5%.