Voter expectations for the 2026 midterms
Overview
Adults leaned toward Republican control of both chambers in their 2026 midterm expectations, but the surrounding candidate and campaign context was not one-note.
About 58% expected Republicans to win control of the House, and 56% expected Republicans to win control of the Senate. In both chambers, a slim Republican majority was the single most common forecast.
Crosstab view
58% expected Republican House control and 56% expected Republican Senate control.
Thinking about the midterm elections in 2026, which party do you think will win control of the US House of Representatives?
Thinking about the midterm elections in 2026, which party do you think will win control of the US House of Representatives?
- Republicans will win a slim majority
- 40.0%
- Democrats will win a slim majority
- 30.7%
- Republicans will win a large majority
- 18.1%
Thinking about the midterm elections in 2026, which party do you think will win control of the US Senate?
- Republicans will win a slim majority
- 37.6%
- Democrats will win a slim majority
- 31.5%
- Republicans will win a large majority
- 18.7%
elections
View source dataRepublican control was the more common forecast
For the House, 40% expected Republicans to win a slim majority and 18% expected Republicans to win a large majority.
For the Senate, 38% expected Republicans to win a slim majority and 19% expected Republicans to win a large majority.
Stacked breakdown
65% chose the candidate described as agreeing with them on most important issues.
Which candidate would you be more likely to support for your party’s nomination:
- Candidate A who agrees with you on most important issues, but who polls and experts in the district show clearly running
- 65.5%
- Candidate B who disagrees with you on some important issues, but who polls and experts in the district show running even
- 34.5%
elections
View source dataCandidate fit still mattered in the nomination frame
In a nomination-choice scenario, 65% selected the candidate described as agreeing with them on most important issues.
A separate presidential-readiness item found 64% would consider voting for a woman in the next U.S. presidential election, compared with 10% who said no and 24% who said they did not know.
Topline
About 55% of Americans recalled political ads on social media and 49% on broadcast television.
Thinking back to the 2024 Presidential elections, in which way do you recall encountering the most political advertisements?
- Social media 54.6%
- Broadcast television 48.9%
- Streaming television 31.0%
- Mailers and flyers 22.6%
- Radio 16.6%
- Other 6.7%
elections
View source dataSocial media and television were the dominant ad memories
Looking back to the 2024 presidential election, 55% recalled encountering political ads on social media.
Broadcast television was close behind at 49%, followed by streaming television at 31%.
Methodology
Full methodology- Mode
- Verasight panel recruited via random address-based sampling, random person-to-person text messaging, and dynamic online targeting
- Population
- US adults age 18+
- Field dates
- 2025-04-09 → 2025-04-15
- Base (unweighted)
- 1,000
- Margin of error
- +/- 3.5%
- Module
- elections
- Sponsor
- Verasight
- Weight variable
- weight
- Weighting targets
- age, race/ethnicity, sex, income, education, region, metropolitan status
Sources
[5]- 01Thinking about the midterm elections in 2026, which party do you think will win control of the US House of Representatives?Anchors the topic in expectations for House control.reports.verasight.io/reports/verasight-mpsa-omnibus-survey-2025-026
- 02Thinking about the midterm elections in 2026, which party do you think will win control of the US Senate?Adds the Senate control expectation.reports.verasight.io/reports/verasight-mpsa-omnibus-survey-2025-026
- 03Which candidate would you be more likely to support for your party’s nomination:Adds a nomination choice between a candidate closer on issues and an alternative candidate.reports.verasight.io/reports/verasight-mpsa-omnibus-survey-2025-026
- 04If a woman were to run in the next U.S. presidential election, would you consider voting for her?Adds a candidate-readiness measure for a future presidential election.reports.verasight.io/reports/verasight-mpsa-omnibus-survey-2025-026
- 05Thinking back to the 2024 Presidential elections, in which way do you recall encountering the most political advertisements?Adds context on the channels where adults remember encountering 2024 political ads.reports.verasight.io/reports/verasight-mpsa-omnibus-survey-2025-026
Citation
Verasight MPSA Omnibus Survey #2025-026, fielded April 9-15, 2025, N=1,000 US adults age 18+, +/- 3.5%.
https://reports.verasight.io/reports/verasight-mpsa-omnibus-survey-2025-026#thinking-about-the-midterm-elections-in-2026-which-party-do-you-think-will-win-control-of-the-us-house-of-representatives