# Voter expectations for the 2026 midterms Canonical page: https://data.verasight.io/politics/voter-expectations-for-the-2026-midterms/ Published: 2026-05-11 > Featured topic in Politics. About 58% expected Republicans to win the House and 56% expected Republicans to win the Senate, with slim majorities the most common forecast in each chamber. ## Overview: Midterm expectations Adults leaned toward Republican control of both chambers in their 2026 midterm expectations, but the surrounding candidate and campaign context was not one-note. About 58% expected Republicans to win control of the House, and 56% expected Republicans to win control of the Senate. In both chambers, a slim Republican majority was the single most common forecast. ## Republican control was the more common forecast For the House, 40% expected Republicans to win a slim majority and 18% expected Republicans to win a large majority. For the Senate, 38% expected Republicans to win a slim majority and 19% expected Republicans to win a large majority. ## Candidate fit still mattered in the nomination frame In a nomination-choice scenario, 65% selected the candidate described as agreeing with them on most important issues. A separate presidential-readiness item found 64% would consider voting for a woman in the next U.S. presidential election, compared with 10% who said no and 24% who said they did not know. ## Social media and television were the dominant ad memories Looking back to the 2024 presidential election, 55% recalled encountering political ads on social media. Broadcast television was close behind at 49%, followed by streaming television at 31%. ## Supporting evidence ### 58% expected Republican House control and 56% expected Republican Senate control. Question: Thinking about the midterm elections in 2026, which party do you think will win control of the US House of Representatives? Note: Anchors the topic in expectations for House control. Topline: - Republicans will win a slim majority: 40.0% - Democrats will win a slim majority: 30.7% - Republicans will win a large majority: 18.1% - Democrats will win a large majority: 11.2% ### 65% chose the candidate described as agreeing with them on most important issues. Question: Which candidate would you be more likely to support for your party’s nomination: Note: Adds a nomination choice between a candidate closer on issues and an alternative candidate. Topline: - Candidate A who agrees with you on most important issues, but who polls and experts in the district show clearly running: 65.5% - Candidate B who disagrees with you on some important issues, but who polls and experts in the district show running even: 34.5% ### About 55% of Americans recalled political ads on social media and 49% on broadcast television. Question: Thinking back to the 2024 Presidential elections, in which way do you recall encountering the most political advertisements? Note: Adds context on the channels where adults remember encountering 2024 political ads. Topline: - Social media: 54.6% - Broadcast television: 48.9% - Streaming television: 31.0% - Mailers and flyers: 22.6% - Radio: 16.6% ## Methodology - Mode: Verasight panel recruited via random address-based sampling, random person-to-person text messaging, and dynamic online targeting - Population: US adults age 18+ - Field dates: 2025-04-09 → 2025-04-15 - Base (unweighted): 1,000 - Margin of error: +/- 3.5% - Module: elections - Sponsor: Verasight - Weight variable: weight - Weighting targets: age, race/ethnicity, sex, income, education, region, metropolitan status ## Sources - [Thinking about the midterm elections in 2026, which party do you think will win control of the US House of Representatives?](https://verasight-mpsa-2025.tiiny.co#prediction-for-2026-u.s.-house-elections): verasight-mpsa-2025.tiiny.co: Anchors the topic in expectations for House control. - [Thinking about the midterm elections in 2026, which party do you think will win control of the US Senate?](https://verasight-mpsa-2025.tiiny.co#prediction-for-2026-u.s.-senate-elections): verasight-mpsa-2025.tiiny.co: Adds the Senate control expectation. - [Which candidate would you be more likely to support for your party’s nomination:](https://verasight-mpsa-2025.tiiny.co#candidate-preference-in-scenario): verasight-mpsa-2025.tiiny.co: Adds a nomination choice between a candidate closer on issues and an alternative candidate. - [If a woman were to run in the next U.S. presidential election, would you consider voting for her?](https://verasight-mpsa-2025.tiiny.co#willingness-to-vote-for-a-female-presidential-candidate): verasight-mpsa-2025.tiiny.co: Adds a candidate-readiness measure for a future presidential election. - [Thinking back to the 2024 Presidential elections, in which way do you recall encountering the most political advertisements?](https://verasight-mpsa-2025.tiiny.co#political-advertisement-exposure-during-2024-election): verasight-mpsa-2025.tiiny.co: Adds context on the channels where adults remember encountering 2024 political ads. ## Citation Verasight MPSA Omnibus Survey #2025-026, fielded April 9-15, 2025, N=1,000 US adults age 18+, +/- 3.5%. Canonical question URL: [https://verasight-mpsa-2025.tiiny.co#prediction-for-2026-u.s.-house-elections](https://verasight-mpsa-2025.tiiny.co#prediction-for-2026-u.s.-house-elections)