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Voter knowledge of past elections and future choices

Source reportMethodology

Overview

Adults mostly identify past presidential losers correctly: 89% name Mitt Romney as the 2012 loser, and 79% name Donald Trump as the 2020 loser.

Looking toward 2024, expectations are closer. Trump is ahead at 38%, Biden is at 35%, and 27% say someone else would win if the election were held then.

Stacked breakdown

89% identify Mitt Romney as the 2012 presidential-election loser.

In the 2012 Presidential Election of Mitt Romney (R) versus Barack Obama (D), who was the loser of the election?

Mitt Romney (R)
88.8%
Barack Obama (D)
11.2%

2023 · base n 1,000 · +/- 3.3%

AAPOR 2023 Omnibus Survey #2023-036

View source data

Past election recognition is high

Recognition of the 2012 result is especially strong, with 89% correctly identifying Mitt Romney as the loser.

Recognition of the 2020 result is also high: 79% identify Donald Trump as the loser.

Stacked breakdown

38% say Trump would win, 35% say Biden, and 27% say someone else.

Who would win the 2024 Presidential Election if held today?

Joe Biden
34.7%
Donald Trump
38.1%
Someone else
27.2%

2023 · base n 1,000 · +/- 3.3%

AAPOR 2023 Omnibus Survey #2023-036

View source data

The 2024 expectation is less settled

Asked who would win the 2024 presidential election if it were held at the time of the survey, 38% say Donald Trump and 35% say Joe Biden.

A sizable 27% choose someone else, which keeps the result from reading like a simple two-name split.

Stacked breakdown

49% agree or strongly agree that they want a viable third-party candidate.

I want a viable third-party candidate to vote for in the 2024 election.

Strongly agree
26.4%
Agree
22.7%
Neutral
32.7%
Disagree
9.5%
Strongly disagree
8.6%

2023 · base n 1,000 · +/- 3.3%

AAPOR 2023 Omnibus Survey #2023-036

View source data

Many adults want more political choice

Interest in a viable third-party candidate is visible: 26% strongly agree and 23% agree that they want one to vote for in 2024.

On D.C. representation, 57% agree that residents should have congressional representatives who vote in the U.S. Senate and House.

Methodology

Full methodology
Mode
Verasight panel recruited via random address-based sampling, random person-to-person text messaging, and dynamic online targeting
Population
United States adults
Field dates
2023-05-16 → 2023-05-17
Base (unweighted)
1,000
Margin of error
+/- 3.3%
Module
AAPOR 2023 Omnibus Survey #2023-036
Sponsor
Verasight
Weight variable
weight
Weighting targets
age, race/ethnicity, sex, income, education, region, metropolitan status

Sources

[5]
  • 01
    In the 2012 Presidential Election of Mitt Romney (R) versus Barack Obama (D), who was the loser of the election?Shows high recognition that Mitt Romney lost the 2012 presidential election.reports.verasight.io/reports/aapor-2023-omnibus-survey-2023-036
  • 02
    In the 2020 Presidential Election of Donald Trump (R) versus Joe Biden (D), who was the loser of the election?Shows recognition that Donald Trump lost the 2020 presidential election.reports.verasight.io/reports/aapor-2023-omnibus-survey-2023-036
  • 03
    Who would win the 2024 Presidential Election if held today?Shows expectations for a hypothetical 2024 election at the time of fielding.reports.verasight.io/reports/aapor-2023-omnibus-survey-2023-036
  • 04
    Please rate the extent to which you agree or disagree with the following statement: I want a viable third-party candidate to vote for in the 2024 election.Adds demand for a viable third-party candidate.reports.verasight.io/reports/aapor-2023-omnibus-survey-2023-036
  • 05
    - US citizens who live in Washington, DC should have Congressional representatives who vote in the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives.Adds a voting-representation issue beyond the presidential contest.reports.verasight.io/reports/aapor-2023-omnibus-survey-2023-036

Citation

AAPOR 2023 Omnibus Survey #2023-036, fielded May 16-17, 2023, N=1,000 United States adults, +/- 3.3%.

https://reports.verasight.io/reports/aapor-2023-omnibus-survey-2023-036#in-the-2012-presidential-election-of-mitt-romney-r-versus-barack-obama-d-who-was-the-loser-of-the-election

Verasight survey methodology

How Verasight conducts surveys.

This page describes the Verasight general survey contract, separate from how the Data Library packages it. Each wave's specific field dates, sample sizes, and module breakdown are listed in that wave's report.

Mode
Verasight panel recruited via random address-based sampling, random person-to-person text messaging, and dynamic online targeting.
Population
US adults age 18+.
Sample design
Surveys are run as omnibus or single-topic waves. Omnibus waves are split into modules with their own respondent set, typically around one thousand respondents per module.
Field window
Each wave specifies its own field dates. Most omnibus waves field across roughly two weeks.
Weighting
Per-module weighting to CPS targets including age, race and ethnicity, sex, income, education, region, and metropolitan status.
Partisanship benchmark
Pew Research Center's NPORS benchmarking surveys, three-year running average.
Vote benchmark
2024 presidential vote population benchmarks.
Margin of error
Typically about plus or minus 3.4 to 3.6 percent per module at standard module sizes. Question-level MoE is recomputed when a base shrinks materially below the module baseline.
Reporting
Every wave is published as a standalone report at verasight.io/reports with full instrument and methodology.
Transparency
AAPOR transparency standards.

Wave-specific methodology, full weighting variable lists, and verbatim instrument text live in each report at verasight.io/reports.