# Voter knowledge of past elections and future choices

Canonical page: https://data.verasight.io/politics/voter-knowledge-of-past-elections-and-future-choices/
Published: 2026-05-11

> Featured topic in Politics.

Knowledge of the 2012 and 2020 losers is high, but the 2024 preference picture is less settled and interest in a viable third-party option is visible.

## Overview: Election knowledge

Adults mostly identify past presidential losers correctly: 89% name Mitt Romney as the 2012 loser, and 79% name Donald Trump as the 2020 loser.

Looking toward 2024, expectations are closer. Trump is ahead at 38%, Biden is at 35%, and 27% say someone else would win if the election were held then.

## Past election recognition is high

Recognition of the 2012 result is especially strong, with 89% correctly identifying Mitt Romney as the loser.

Recognition of the 2020 result is also high: 79% identify Donald Trump as the loser.

## The 2024 expectation is less settled

Asked who would win the 2024 presidential election if it were held at the time of the survey, 38% say Donald Trump and 35% say Joe Biden.

A sizable 27% choose someone else, which keeps the result from reading like a simple two-name split.

## Many adults want more political choice

Interest in a viable third-party candidate is visible: 26% strongly agree and 23% agree that they want one to vote for in 2024.

On D.C. representation, 57% agree that residents should have congressional representatives who vote in the U.S. Senate and House.

## Supporting evidence

### 89% identify Mitt Romney as the 2012 presidential-election loser.

Question: In the 2012 Presidential Election of Mitt Romney (R) versus Barack Obama (D), who was the loser of the election?

Note: Shows high recognition that Mitt Romney lost the 2012 presidential election.

Topline:

- Mitt Romney (R): 88.8%
- Barack Obama (D): 11.2%

### 38% say Trump would win, 35% say Biden, and 27% say someone else.

Question: Who would win the 2024 Presidential Election if held today?

Note: Shows expectations for a hypothetical 2024 election at the time of fielding.

Topline:

- Donald Trump: 38.1%
- Joe Biden: 34.7%
- Someone else: 27.2%

### 49% agree or strongly agree that they want a viable third-party candidate.

Question: I want a viable third-party candidate to vote for in the 2024 election.

Note: Adds demand for a viable third-party candidate.

Topline:

- Neutral: 32.7%
- Strongly agree: 26.4%
- Agree: 22.7%
- Disagree: 9.5%
- Strongly disagree: 8.6%

## Methodology

- Mode: Verasight panel recruited via random address-based sampling, random person-to-person text messaging, and dynamic online targeting
- Population: United States adults
- Field dates: 2023-05-16 → 2023-05-17
- Base (unweighted): 1,000
- Margin of error: +/- 3.3%
- Module: AAPOR 2023 Omnibus Survey #2023-036
- Sponsor: Verasight
- Weight variable: weight
- Weighting targets: age, race/ethnicity, sex, income, education, region, metropolitan status

## Sources

- [In the 2012 Presidential Election of Mitt Romney (R) versus Barack Obama (D), who was the loser of the election?](https://verasight-aapor-2023.tiiny.co#election-loser-1): verasight-aapor-2023.tiiny.co: Shows high recognition that Mitt Romney lost the 2012 presidential election.
- [In the 2020 Presidential Election of Donald Trump (R) versus Joe Biden (D), who was the loser of the election?](https://verasight-aapor-2023.tiiny.co#election-loser): verasight-aapor-2023.tiiny.co: Shows recognition that Donald Trump lost the 2020 presidential election.
- [Who would win the 2024 Presidential Election if held today?](https://verasight-aapor-2023.tiiny.co#who-would-win-the-2024-presidential-election-if-held-today): verasight-aapor-2023.tiiny.co: Shows expectations for a hypothetical 2024 election at the time of fielding.
- [Please rate the extent to which you agree or disagree with the following statement: I want a viable third-party candidate to vote for in the 2024 election.](https://verasight-aapor-2023.tiiny.co#viable-third-party-candidate-for-2024-election): verasight-aapor-2023.tiiny.co: Adds demand for a viable third-party candidate.
- [- US citizens who live in Washington, DC should have Congressional representatives who vote in the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives.](https://verasight-aapor-2023.tiiny.co#washington-dc-congressional-representatives-who-vote-in-the-us): verasight-aapor-2023.tiiny.co: Adds a voting-representation issue beyond the presidential contest.

## Citation

AAPOR 2023 Omnibus Survey #2023-036, fielded May 16-17, 2023, N=1,000 United States adults, +/- 3.3%.

Canonical question URL: [https://verasight-aapor-2023.tiiny.co#election-loser-1](https://verasight-aapor-2023.tiiny.co#election-loser-1)