A slim majority think Democrats will win the House in 2026
Core finding
In a Verasight survey conducted December 22, 2025 to January 5, 2026, a slim majority of Americans (55%) expect Democrats to win the most seats in the U.S. House after the 2026 midterms.
The other 45% expect Republicans to come out ahead instead.
Topline distribution
A slim majority think Democrats will win the House in 2026.
Which party will win the most House seats after the 2026 midterms?
n = 1,000 · Dec 22, 2025 – Jan 5, 2026 · MoE ±3.1%
Methodology
Full methodology →| Mode | Verasight panel recruited via random address-based sampling, random person-to-person text messaging, and dynamic online targeting |
|---|---|
| Population | United States adults |
| Field dates | Dec 22, 2025 – Jan 5, 2026 |
| Base (unweighted) | 1,000 |
| Margin of error | ±3.1% |
| Module | predictions |
| Sponsor | Verasight |
| Weight variable | weight for AI and predictions questions; weight_popculture for pop culture questions |
| Weighting targets | age, race/ethnicity, sex, income, education, region, metropolitan status |
Sources
- reports.verasight.io/r/2026-predictions
Which party will win the most House seats after the 2026 midterms?
Cite this question
2026 Predictions Survey #2025-183, fielded December 22, 2025-January 5, 2026, N=1,000 United States adults, +/- 3.1%.