A slim majority think Democrats will win the House in 2026

Dec 22, 2025 – Jan 5, 2026 · n = 1,000 · MoE ±3.1%Source report ↗

Core finding

In a Verasight survey conducted December 22, 2025 to January 5, 2026, a slim majority of Americans (55%) expect Democrats to win the most seats in the U.S. House after the 2026 midterms.

The other 45% expect Republicans to come out ahead instead.

Topline distribution

A slim majority think Democrats will win the House in 2026.

Which party will win the most House seats after the 2026 midterms?

Democrats
55.1%
Republicans
44.9%

n = 1,000 · Dec 22, 2025 – Jan 5, 2026 · MoE ±3.1%

ModeVerasight panel recruited via random address-based sampling, random person-to-person text messaging, and dynamic online targeting
PopulationUnited States adults
Field datesDec 22, 2025 – Jan 5, 2026
Base (unweighted)1,000
Margin of error±3.1%
Modulepredictions
SponsorVerasight
Weight variableweight for AI and predictions questions; weight_popculture for pop culture questions
Weighting targetsage, race/ethnicity, sex, income, education, region, metropolitan status

Sources

  1. 01

    Which party will win the most House seats after the 2026 midterms?

    reports.verasight.io/r/2026-predictions

Cite this question

2026 Predictions Survey #2025-183, fielded December 22, 2025-January 5, 2026, N=1,000 United States adults, +/- 3.1%.