How Americans see the 2026 midterms shaping up
Core finding
Heading into the 2026 midterms, stated turnout intent is high and expectations tilt narrowly toward Democrats, though about a quarter of Americans are unsure who will win control of Congress.
The mood is sour. 62% say the country is on the wrong track, and 43% give President Trump the lowest possible rating for his job performance.
Most plan to turn out
78.3% say they have voted before and plan to vote this fall, and another 4.6% are first-time voters who plan to participate.
On how they will decide, 25.3% will back the best-qualified candidate and 23.3% will compare policy positions, while 23.9% will vote Democratic no matter what and 15.5% Republican no matter what.
A narrow Democratic edge in expectations
39.3% expect Democrats to win the most House seats versus 35.0% who expect Republicans, with 25.6% unsure.
Expectations for the Senate are similar: 38.7% say Democrats and 36.0% Republicans, with 25.2% unsure.
Topline
39.3% expect Democrats to win the House; 35.0% expect Republicans.
n = 1,000 · Jun 21, 2026 · MoE ±3.2%
Against a sour national mood
62.0% say the country is on the wrong track, while 25.1% say it is headed in the right direction.
On a 0-to-10 scale, 43.0% rate President Trump's job performance a 0, the lowest possible score, compared with 12.6% who give him a 10.
Topline
62.0% say the country is on the wrong track.
n = 1,000 · Jun 21, 2026 · MoE ±3.2%
Stacked breakdown
43.0% rate President Trump's performance a 0 out of 10.
n = 1,000 · Jun 21, 2026 · MoE ±3.2%
Methodology
Full methodology →| Mode | Verasight panel recruited via random address-based sampling, random person-to-person text messaging, and dynamic online targeting |
|---|---|
| Population | US adults age 18+ |
| Field dates | Jun 21, 2026 |
| Base (unweighted) | 1,000 |
| Margin of error | ±3.2% |
| Module | 2 |
| Sponsor | Verasight |
| Weight variable | weight |
| Weighting targets | age, race/ethnicity, sex, income, education, region, metropolitan status |
Sources
- reports.verasight.io/r/mpsa26
Are you a voter, and are you planning on voting in the upcoming November 2026 election?
- reports.verasight.io/r/mpsa26
Thinking about the upcoming election in November 2026, which party do you think will win the most seats in the U.S. House of Representatives?
- reports.verasight.io/r/mpsa26
Thinking about the upcoming election in November 2026, which party do you think will win the most seats in the U.S. Senate?
- reports.verasight.io/r/mpsa26
Do you think that things in the country are headed in the right direction, or are they off on the wrong track?
- reports.verasight.io/r/mpsa26
On a scale of 0 to 10, how would you rate President Trump’s job performance? 0 represents "very poor performance" and 10 represents "very good performance".
Cite this topic
Verasight MPSA Omnibus Survey #2026-050, fielded June 21-21, 2026, N=1,000 US adults age 18+, +/- 3.2%.