Voter expectations for the 2026 midterms
Core finding
Adults leaned toward Republican control of both chambers in their 2026 midterm expectations, but the surrounding candidate and campaign context was not one-note.
About 58% expected Republicans to win control of the House, and 56% expected Republicans to win control of the Senate. In both chambers, a slim Republican majority was the single most common forecast.
Republican control was the more common forecast
For the House, 40% expected Republicans to win a slim majority and 18% expected Republicans to win a large majority.
For the Senate, 38% expected Republicans to win a slim majority and 19% expected Republicans to win a large majority.
Crosstab view
58% expected Republican House control and 56% expected Republican Senate control.
Thinking about the midterm elections in 2026, which party do you think will win control of the US House of Representatives?
Thinking about the midterm elections in 2026, which party do you think will win control of the US Senate?
n = 1,000 · Apr 9–15, 2025 · MoE ±3.5%
Candidate fit still mattered in the nomination frame
In a nomination-choice scenario, 65% selected the candidate described as agreeing with them on most important issues.
A separate presidential-readiness item found 64% would consider voting for a woman in the next U.S. presidential election, compared with 10% who said no and 24% who said they did not know.
Stacked breakdown
65% chose the candidate described as agreeing with them on most important issues.
n = 1,000 · Apr 9–15, 2025 · MoE ±3.5%
Social media and television were the dominant ad memories
Looking back to the 2024 presidential election, 55% recalled encountering political ads on social media.
Broadcast television was close behind at 49%, followed by streaming television at 31%.
Topline
About 55% of Americans recalled political ads on social media and 49% on broadcast television.
n = 1,000 · Apr 9–15, 2025 · MoE ±3.5%
Methodology
Full methodology →| Mode | Verasight panel recruited via random address-based sampling, random person-to-person text messaging, and dynamic online targeting |
|---|---|
| Population | US adults age 18+ |
| Field dates | Apr 9–15, 2025 |
| Base (unweighted) | 1,000 |
| Margin of error | ±3.5% |
| Module | elections |
| Sponsor | Verasight |
| Weight variable | weight |
| Weighting targets | age, race/ethnicity, sex, income, education, region, metropolitan status |
Sources
- verasight-mpsa-2025.tiiny.co
Thinking about the midterm elections in 2026, which party do you think will win control of the US House of Representatives?
- verasight-mpsa-2025.tiiny.co
Thinking about the midterm elections in 2026, which party do you think will win control of the US Senate?
- verasight-mpsa-2025.tiiny.co
Which candidate would you be more likely to support for your party’s nomination:
- verasight-mpsa-2025.tiiny.co
If a woman were to run in the next U.S. presidential election, would you consider voting for her?
- verasight-mpsa-2025.tiiny.co
Thinking back to the 2024 Presidential elections, in which way do you recall encountering the most political advertisements?
Cite this topic
Verasight MPSA Omnibus Survey #2025-026, fielded April 9-15, 2025, N=1,000 US adults age 18+, +/- 3.5%.