Voter knowledge of past elections and future choices
Core finding
Adults mostly identify past presidential losers correctly: 89% name Mitt Romney as the 2012 loser, and 79% name Donald Trump as the 2020 loser.
Looking toward 2024, expectations are closer. Trump is ahead at 38%, Biden is at 35%, and 27% say someone else would win if the election were held then.
Past election recognition is high
Recognition of the 2012 result is especially strong, with 89% correctly identifying Mitt Romney as the loser.
Recognition of the 2020 result is also high: 79% identify Donald Trump as the loser.
Stacked breakdown
89% identify Mitt Romney as the 2012 presidential-election loser.
n = 1,000 · May 16–17, 2023 · MoE ±3.3%
The 2024 expectation is less settled
Asked who would win the 2024 presidential election if it were held at the time of the survey, 38% say Donald Trump and 35% say Joe Biden.
A sizable 27% choose someone else, which keeps the result from reading like a simple two-name split.
Stacked breakdown
38% say Trump would win, 35% say Biden, and 27% say someone else.
n = 1,000 · May 16–17, 2023 · MoE ±3.3%
Many adults want more political choice
Interest in a viable third-party candidate is visible: 26% strongly agree and 23% agree that they want one to vote for in 2024.
On D.C. representation, 57% agree that residents should have congressional representatives who vote in the U.S. Senate and House.
Stacked breakdown
49% agree or strongly agree that they want a viable third-party candidate.
n = 1,000 · May 16–17, 2023 · MoE ±3.3%
Methodology
Full methodology →| Mode | Verasight panel recruited via random address-based sampling, random person-to-person text messaging, and dynamic online targeting |
|---|---|
| Population | United States adults |
| Field dates | May 16–17, 2023 |
| Base (unweighted) | 1,000 |
| Margin of error | ±3.3% |
| Module | AAPOR 2023 Omnibus Survey #2023-036 |
| Sponsor | Verasight |
| Weight variable | weight |
| Weighting targets | age, race/ethnicity, sex, income, education, region, metropolitan status |
Sources
- verasight-aapor-2023.tiiny.co
In the 2012 Presidential Election of Mitt Romney (R) versus Barack Obama (D), who was the loser of the election?
- verasight-aapor-2023.tiiny.co
In the 2020 Presidential Election of Donald Trump (R) versus Joe Biden (D), who was the loser of the election?
- verasight-aapor-2023.tiiny.co
Who would win the 2024 Presidential Election if held today?
- verasight-aapor-2023.tiiny.co
Please rate the extent to which you agree or disagree with the following statement: I want a viable third-party candidate to vote for in the 2024 election.
- verasight-aapor-2023.tiiny.co
- US citizens who live in Washington, DC should have Congressional representatives who vote in the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives.
Cite this topic
AAPOR 2023 Omnibus Survey #2023-036, fielded May 16-17, 2023, N=1,000 United States adults, +/- 3.3%.